Abraham Accords: A snapshot of the evolving Arab-Israeli diplomatic landscape.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represent a significant realignment of political and economic relations in the Middle East. Agreements were initially reached between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, normalising diplomatic ties and fostering cooperation across various sectors. These accords marked a departure from decades of Arab League consensus opposing engagement with Israel without a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Though Sudan’s progress has stalled following the outbreak of civil war, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco maintain and are actively developing their relationships with Israel. The Accords aimed to create a broader framework for regional stability and economic prosperity, though their long-term impact remains hotly debated and deeply interwoven with the continuing plight of the Palestinians and wider regional dynamics.
Progress Made
Etihad Airways’ recent announcement of a substantial expansion of its services to Tel Aviv underscores the continuing, and in some cases accelerating, normalisation process. The Emirati national carrier will be doubling its weekly flights from Abu Dhabi to Tel Aviv to 14, starting in October, alongside plans to introduce a dedicated year-round service – expanding beyond the previously seasonal schedule driven by tourist demand. This represents a concrete increase in connectivity, facilitating increased tourism, business travel, and potentially, investment between the two nations.
The increase in flights follows a record-breaking year for Israeli tourism to the UAE in 2023, with over 300,000 Israelis visiting the Emirates. Etihad is responding to this demonstrated demand, and alongside other Gulf carriers like Emirates and flydubai, is playing a pivotal role in cementing people-to-people connections.
Beyond tourism, the economic collaboration between Israel and the UAE continues to broaden. Trade volume reached over $2.7 billion in 2022 (latest available official figures) and is expected to continue growing. Cooperation extends to fields like renewable energy, food security, technological innovation, and healthcare. Several joint ventures have been established, including in cybersecurity and agricultural technology. Bahrain and Morocco, though experiencing slower growth in bilateral trade than the UAE, are also witnessing increasing economic engagement, with Israeli companies exploring investment opportunities related to infrastructure, water technologies and sustainable energy. Morocco’s substantial Jewish diaspora also serves as a potent cultural bridge.
The increased flight capacity is further illustrative of growing broader trade relations facilitated by the Israel-Jordan Qualified Industrial Zone (QIZ) which benefits both countries, and the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) which seeks to integrate these regions through transport and infrastructure projects.
Challenges
Despite the positive developments, substantial challenges remain to fully realising the potential of the Abraham Accords. The most significant obstacle is the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Many Arab citizens, and governments too, publicly maintain that full normalisation is contingent upon substantive progress towards a two-state solution. The current Israeli government’s policies in the West Bank, including settlement expansion, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, fuel Palestinian frustration and resentment, weakening regional support for the Accords.
Public opinion in several Arab states remains sceptical or opposed to normalisation. While governments have pursued diplomatic and economic ties, societal acceptance is lagging, complicated by sensitivities surrounding the plight of Palestinians and historic grievances. This disconnect creates a degree of political fragility around the agreements.
Furthermore, geopolitical shifts and regional power struggles introduce further uncertainty. The war in Yemen, the ongoing competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the broader impact of global energy markets all create a complex backdrop against which these normalisation efforts are unfolding. The recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Hezbollah also create a volatile security environment that could derail progress.
Finally, the political instability within some of the Accord signatory nations, such as Sudan, poses a practical risk. The coup in Sudan in 2021 and the subsequent civil war have effectively halted the normalisation process there, demonstrating the vulnerability of these agreements to internal political turmoil.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The strengthening ties between Israel and its Arab neighbours, facilitated by the Abraham Accords, are perceived – and actively presented – by many as a strategic counterweight to Iran’s regional influence. The UAE and Bahrain share concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme, its support for proxy groups, and its overall destabilising activities in the region. Deepening security cooperation between Israel and these Gulf states – including through intelligence sharing and joint military exercises – is a direct consequence of this shared threat perception.
Etihad’s expansion into the Israeli market can be viewed within this context. While framed as a commercial decision driven by demand, it implicitly demonstrates a greater degree of comfort and trust between Abu Dhabi and Jerusalem. This improved relationship allows for increased economic and diplomatic engagement, strengthening a bloc increasingly aligned against Iranian interests.
However, Iran remains a powerful actor and its response to the Abraham Accords has been critical. Iran views the Accords as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and a threat to its regional hegemony. While direct military confrontation seems unlikely in the short term, Iran continues to support groups that oppose Israel and actively works to undermine the normalisation process through political and diplomatic channels. This dynamic risks escalating regional tensions and could potentially jeopardise the sustainability of the Abraham Accords.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords hinges on a delicate balancing act. While the momentum towards economic and security cooperation is visible, particularly with the UAE, ignoring the Palestinian question will ultimately limit the long-term viability of the agreements. A renewed focus on de-escalation and creating a more conducive environment for meaningful Israeli-Palestinian negotiations is crucial.
Increased multilateral involvement, perhaps brokered by the United States alongside regional actors like Jordan and Egypt, is essential to address the core grievances fuelling the conflict. This could involve confidence-building measures, economic incentives for peace, and a commitment to a two-state solution based on internationally recognised parameters.
Successfully navigating the Israel-Iran dynamic is also paramount. Continued diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and prevent a wider regional conflict are vital. Building upon existing security cooperation frameworks while simultaneously exploring avenues for dialogue with Iran can contribute towards managing this complex relationship.
Etihad’s expansion is a positive indicator, demonstrating the resilience and potential of the Accords. However, it is one piece of a far larger and more complex geopolitical puzzle. The future of normalisation is not assured and requires sustained diplomatic effort, realistic expectations, and a willingness to address the underlying drivers of conflict in the region.
Source: Derived from the title “Etihad doubles down: a major Tel Aviv expansion signals confidence” and supplemented with current affairs analysis and publicly available information on the Abraham Accords.