Abraham Accords: Assessing the practicalities of peace beyond declarations – and the obstacles that remain.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Agreements were initially reached between Israel and four Arab nations: the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. The core aim was to normalise relations, establishing diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties previously unthinkable. While Sudan’s progress stalled following the 2021 coup, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco swiftly moved to implement the agreements. The Accords were built on shared concerns regarding Iran’s regional influence and a desire for closer economic cooperation. However, they simultaneously sidelined the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a prerequisite for normalisation, a point of contention for Palestinian authorities and their supporters. Today, the Accords represent a framework of bilateral agreements rather than a comprehensive regional peace treaty, with varying degrees of integration achieved.
Progress Made
The most visible sign of progress lies in the establishment of diplomatic missions. The UAE and Bahrain have fully operational embassies in Israel, and Israel has reciprocated. Morocco followed suit, opening an embassy in Rabat and Israel opening one in the city. These embassies aren’t simply symbolic; they’re functioning bureaucracies handling visa applications, trade negotiations, and cultural exchange programmes. A key growth area has been trade. Israel’s trade with the UAE soared to over $2.5 billion in 2022, encompassing sectors like technology, renewable energy, and food security. Bahrain and Morocco also demonstrate growing trade links, though at a smaller scale.
Beyond economics, security cooperation, primarily intelligence sharing, has quietly strengthened, particularly between Israel and the UAE, focusing on shared concerns about Iranian activities. Tourist numbers have increased significantly. Direct flights now connect Tel Aviv to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Casablanca, fostering people-to-people contact. Academic and scientific collaboration is also gaining momentum, with joint research initiatives and student exchange programmes coming online.
Furthermore, the infrastructure of normalisation is extending beyond government-to-government ties. Business councils and chambers of commerce have been established to facilitate private sector engagement. Bilateral agreements on visa waivers and mutual recognition of qualifications are easing travel and professional opportunities. And the signing of numerous memorandums of understanding (MoUs) signals a broader willingness to cooperate on diverse issues – from water management to agricultural technology. However, key areas such as full diplomatic recognition for Morocco over Western Sahara remain unresolved, and continue to be a point of diplomatic negotiation.
Challenges
Despite demonstrable progress, the Abraham Accords face numerous headwinds. Public opinion in several Arab nations remains largely sceptical of normalisation with Israel, and displays of overt support can be politically risky for regional leaders. The lack of parallel progress on the Israeli-Palestinian track fuels criticism and undermines the Accords’ long-term legitimacy in the eyes of many. Repeated clashes between Israel and Palestinians, particularly in Jerusalem and the West Bank, directly impact public sentiment and create conditions that make deeper regional integration more difficult.
Sudan offers a stark example of the fragility of the process. The 2021 military coup derailed the normalisation process, and the ensuing political instability has prevented the full implementation of the agreement. While there have been recent signals of renewed intent, progress remains uncertain.
Economically, while trade is increasing, opportunities are not necessarily extending to all sectors of society. Concerns exist that the benefits of economic cooperation are primarily accruing to elite groups. The ongoing geopolitical turbulence, including the war in Ukraine and its inflationary pressures, is also creating economic headwinds that could slow the pace of integration. Moreover, divergence in political systems – the authoritarian nature of some Arab states versus Israel’s democratic institutions – presents challenges to long-term, sustainable cooperation. Political transitions within any of the signatory nations could also lead to a reassessment or even reversal of the accords.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The shadow of Iran looms large over the Abraham Accords, serving as a central, yet often unstated, driver of the normalisation process. The UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco share Israel’s concerns about Iran’s regional ambitions, nuclear program, and support for proxy groups. The Accords are, in part, a response to perceived Iranian destabilisation efforts and a bid to build a united front against Tehran.
Israel views the Accords as strategically important in bolstering its security architecture and isolating Iran. These new partnerships allow for greater intelligence sharing and potential coordinated responses to Iranian threats. However, Iran consistently condemns the Accords as attempts to undermine Palestinian aspirations and as a betrayal of the Arab world. Tehran has significantly increased its rhetoric against the signatory states, and accusations of Iranian cyberattacks and support for regional adversaries have become more frequent.
This escalating tension creates a precarious situation. If Iran were to significantly escalate its nuclear program, or if regional conflicts involving Iran were to intensify, the Accords could be severely tested. The fragile balance could be disrupted, potentially leading to renewed polarisation and even a rollback of normalisation efforts. Ultimately, the future of the Accords is inextricably linked to the evolving dynamics of the Israel-Iran relationship – and the broader regional security context.
Path Forward
The immediate future of the Abraham Accords is likely to be one of incremental consolidation rather than dramatic expansion. Further deepening of existing bilateral relationships – particularly in trade, tourism, and security cooperation – is a realistic expectation. Focus will likely centre on turning MoUs into concrete, implementable projects.
Reviving the process with Sudan, even in a limited form, is a priority for the US and others. However, this hinges on a clear pathway to democratic transition within Sudan. Expanding the circle of normalisation to include Saudi Arabia remains a long-term goal, but its achievement necessitates significant progress on the Palestinian issue.
It’s unlikely we will see wholesale regional transformation in the short term. The accords have created a new, albeit partial, normalisation, but they have not eradicated long-standing tensions, and are vulnerable to regional shocks. Managing these tensions, avoiding escalation with Iran, and addressing the Palestinian question – even if only symbolically – are crucial for sustaining momentum. The focus will need to shift towards building more resilient, people-to-people connections alongside the governmental agreements already in place. The long-term success of the Accords depends on translating political agreements into tangible benefits for ordinary citizens and fostering a genuine sense of shared interests.
Source: Merlows’ reporting is based on analysis of open-source intelligence, government statements, and interviews with regional experts specialising in Middle East normalisation and the Abraham Accords.
