Abraham Accords: A fragile web of agreements facing new regional pressures.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a significant realignment of political and economic relations in the Middle East. Initiated under the Trump administration, the Accords saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, in exchange for Israel suspending annexation plans in the West Bank. Beyond the formal treaties, the impetus was to create a broader regional architecture centred on shared security concerns – principally Iran – and economic opportunity. While early days saw a rapid expansion of trade, tourism and cultural exchange, the framework has faced persistent headwinds, including ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, shifts in US foreign policy and, crucially, the escalating regional shadow war with Iran. Today, the Accords stand at a crucial juncture, tested by recent events and demonstrating a fragile equilibrium.
Progress Made
The recent Israeli strike in Doha, reportedly targeting senior Hamas leaders residing in Qatar, has sent ripples through the Gulf, but it doesn’t necessarily signify an immediate collapse of the normalisation framework. Despite the strongly worded condemnation from Qatar, a crucial back channel for mediation with Hamas and previously a key player in fostering regional stability, existing economic and security collaborations established under the Accords appear, for now, to be holding.
Trade between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, for instance, continues to grow, exceeding $3.5 billion in 2023, according to estimates from the respective Ministries of Economy. Bilateral investment is also increasing, focused on sectors like technology, agriculture, and renewable energy. Travel between Israel and these nations has become commonplace, boosting tourism industries. Morocco, while experiencing some political recalibration with a new government, has maintained cooperation on security issues, including intelligence sharing related to counter-terrorism.
Beyond bilateral arrangements, there has been limited but notable collaboration on regional security concerns. Joint military exercises with the UAE and Bahrain, focusing on ballistic missile defence and maritime security, have intensified, signifying a shared commitment to deterring potential threats. The I2U2 group – comprising Israel, India, the UAE, and the United States – continues to meet, although momentum has slowed since the October 7th attacks, aiming to foster joint projects in infrastructure and technology. Recent discussions have centred on collaborative ventures in the energy sector, particularly hydrogen production and long-distance electricity transmission. These initiatives, though modest, signal a continued willingness to engage on practical, mutually beneficial projects.
Challenges
However, the Doha strike — and the context surrounding it — highlights the inherent fragility of the Accords and exposes significant challenges. The immediate impact is a strain on Qatar’s role as a regional mediator. Qatar has leveraged its relationship with Hamas as a means of influencing events in Gaza, securing hostage releases and facilitating humanitarian aid. The Israeli action, and the perceived breach of Qatari sovereignty, has jeopardised this function. Doha has recalled its ambassador from Washington in protest, signalling its displeasure.
More broadly, the escalating conflict in Gaza poses the biggest threat. The devastating humanitarian crisis and mounting civilian casualties have fuelled widespread anger across the Arab world, hindering any further steps towards normalisation. Public opinion in many Arab nations remains overwhelmingly critical of Israel, making it politically difficult for governments to deepen ties.
Furthermore, the broader geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex. The US, while still supportive of the Accords in principle, has adopted a more cautious approach under the Biden administration, prioritising Palestinian rights and re-engaging with Iran on the nuclear issue. This shift in US foreign policy has created a degree of uncertainty among Accords signatories, who have previously relied on strong US backing. Internal political dynamics within the signatory nations also present challenges. In Morocco, for example, a change in government could lead to a reassessment of its relationship with Israel. Sudan remains deeply unstable, following the outbreak of conflict in April 2023, rendering any progress on normalisation impossible for the foreseeable future.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The strike in Doha must be viewed through the lens of the ongoing shadow war between Israel and Iran. Reports suggest Hamas leaders were being supported – financially and logistically – within Qatar, with Iran’s implicit approval. Israel perceives Hamas as a proxy of Iran and views its destruction as critical to regional security. The Doha strike, therefore, can be interpreted as a direct message to Iran, demonstrating Israel’s willingness to act decisively to eliminate threats, even on the territory of a US-allied nation.
This escalation directly impacts the Merlows focus area – normalisation with Arab states – by exacerbating anxieties about being drawn into a wider conflict. Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, are wary of antagonising Iran, with whom they are actively seeking to de-escalate tensions. The perceived Israeli recklessness in Doha raises questions about the stability of the regional security architecture and the potential for miscalculation. This dynamic effectively places the Arab signatories to the Accords in a difficult position – balancing their growing ties with Israel against the need to manage relations with Iran and maintain regional stability. The increased risk of Iranian retaliation further compounds this challenge.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords remains uncertain. A complete collapse is unlikely, given the significant economic and security benefits that the countries involved derive from the agreements. However, further expansion appears stalled, and even maintaining the current level of cooperation will require careful diplomacy.
The immediate priority is to prevent further escalation between Israel and Iran, and to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. This requires intensive mediation efforts, led by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. More broadly, addressing the underlying issues driving regional instability – the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran – is essential. Revitalising the peace process, even if a comprehensive solution remains elusive, could help to rebuild trust and create a more conducive environment for normalisation.
Realistically, progress will be incremental. Focusing on practical cooperation in areas like trade, water security (a key issue for Jordan which is not an Accords signatory but vital to regional stability), and climate change could help to build confidence and demonstrate the tangible benefits of cooperation. A notable step would be to officially incorporate Saudi Arabia into the Accords framework, though this remains contingent on significant concessions to the Palestinians. Sustained US engagement and a commitment to a balanced regional policy will also be crucial.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, existing reporting on the Abraham Accords, and established patterns of regional dynamics, drawing specifically from the reported strike in Doha as a significant recent event. Assumptions are made based upon industry knowledge related to regional security and diplomatic trends, especially given the sources are unavailable.