Abraham Accords:
The Abraham Accords represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy, aiming to normalise relations between Israel and Arab nations. While facing headwinds, they continue to reshape regional dynamics.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, initially saw Israel establish diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. This challenged decades of Arab consensus opposing engagement with Israel prior to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The agreements encompassed trade, tourism, security cooperation and cultural exchange. While Sudan’s implementation remains stalled following internal conflict, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have significantly deepened ties with Israel. Today, the Accords are viewed as a complex work in progress, demonstrating both tangible progress and significant limitations in broader regional impact.
Progress Made
The economic benefits of the Abraham Accords are becoming increasingly apparent. Bilateral trade between Israel and the UAE surged to over $2.5 billion in 2023, with further growth expected. Bahrain and Morocco are also experiencing increasing trade volumes, particularly in sectors like tourism, technology, and renewable energy (MEI, 2026). Several joint ventures have emerged across multiple sectors, including agricultural technology, cybersecurity, and healthcare.
Beyond trade, security cooperation has expanded, notably in response to shared concerns regarding Iran’s regional activities. Intelligence sharing and joint military exercises, though largely unpublicised, have increased. The Accords have also fostered greater people-to-people connections, with a substantial rise in tourism between the signatory nations. Kazakhstan’s recent exploration of joining the framework, though still preliminary, signals external interest and a potential broadening of the Accords’ sphere of influence (MEI, 2026). This reflects a view within some quarters that normalisation is less intrinsically linked to the Palestinian issue than previously assumed (Manara Magazine, 2026).
Challenges
Despite the progress, the Abraham Accords face substantial challenges. The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a significant impediment, with regional critics arguing the Accords circumvent rather than address the core issue. Public opinion in many Arab countries remains largely opposed to normalisation with Israel without progress on Palestinian statehood (Atlas Institute, 2025).
Internal political dynamics within signatory states also present obstacles. In Morocco, parliamentary opposition continues to voice reservations, whilst in Bahrain, diverging views within the ruling family exist regarding the depth of cooperation with Israel. Globally, shifting geopolitical priorities and a more cautious U.S. approach to the region under a different administration could create uncertainties. The war in Sudan pushed normalisation, at least temporarily, off the agenda. Moreover, claims of economic benefits have been criticised as overstated, and the agreements have exacerbated existing divisions within the Arab world (Reuters, 2025).
Israel-Iran Dimension
The Accords have inadvertently intensified the strategic rivalry between Israel and Iran. Iran views the normalisation agreements as a direct threat to its regional influence and has consistently condemned them. The enhanced security cooperation between Israel and the Arab signatories is perceived as a united front aimed at containing Iran’s ambitions.
This perception has fuelled increased Iranian support for proxy groups across the region, leading to heightened tensions. Some analysts believe that the expanding ties between Israel and Arab states are accelerating an arms race and increasing the likelihood of direct confrontation (Atlas Institute, 2025). Conversely, proponents of the Accords argue that they provide a stabilising force by bolstering a united front against Iranian aggression, and that a stronger, integrated region is better equipped to manage the threat. A vision for a ‘free Iran’ coexisting with Israel has been proposed, predicated on regime change and a new regional order (Times of Israel, 2026).
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords hinges on navigating the complex interplay of these challenges and opportunities. Expansion of the Accords to include Saudi Arabia remains a key, albeit uncertain, goal. Progress likely depends on continued U.S. engagement, or a successful regional mediation. A more realistic short-term strategy involves consolidating and deepening existing ties between current signatories, focusing on tangible economic benefits to build public support.
Simultaneously, addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, however incrementally, is crucial for mitigating regional criticisms and unlocking broader Arab participation. Practical steps toward de-escalation and renewed dialogue are essential. Ultimately, the Accords’ long-term viability rests on demonstrating their capacity to contribute to a more stable, prosperous, and inclusive Middle East.
Sources:
* MEI (Middle East Institute). (2026). Kazakhstan’s Entry Signals a New Phase for the Abraham Accords. [https://mei.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Abraham-Accords_Backgrounder_2025.pdf](https://mei.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Abraham-Accords_Backgrounder_2025.pdf)
* Wikipedia. (2024). Abraham Accords. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords)
* Manara Magazine. (2026). The Post-War Middle East: A Region Reshaped. [https://manaramagazine.org/2026/02/reconfiguration-of-the-abraham-accords/](https://manaramagazine.org/2026/02/reconfiguration-of-the-abraham-accords/)
* Reuters. (2025, September 15). What are the Abraham Accords?. [https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-are-abraham-accords-2025-09-15/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-are-abraham-accords-2025-09-15/)
* Atlas Institute. (2025). The Geopolitics of the Abraham Accords. [https://atlasinstitute.org/the-geopolitics-of-the-abraham-accords/](https://atlasinstitute.org/the-geopolitics-of-the-abraham-accords/)
* Times of Israel Blogs. (2026). Dawn of Unity: A Vision for a Free Iran and Israel. [https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/dawn-of-unity-a-vision-for-a-free-iran-and-israel/](https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/dawn-of-unity-a-vision-for-a-free-iran-and-israel/)