Abraham Accords: A fragile, evolving landscape of normalisation, seeking broader regional engagement.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represented a dramatic shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Initiated with normalisation agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, the Accords aimed to move beyond decades of Arab-Israeli conflict. Morocco and Sudan subsequently joined the pact, establishing diplomatic and economic ties with Israel. The core premise revolved around a ‘land-for-peace’ re-evaluation, bypassing the traditional prerequisite of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a condition for normalisation. While lauded by supporters as a transformative opportunity for regional stability and prosperity, the Accords have remained controversial, facing criticism for sidelining the Palestinian issue and fuelling sectarian tensions. Today, expansion remains a key goal, but the geopolitical landscape has shifted considerably, and the path forward is laden with complexities.
Progress Made
Despite a turbulent regional environment over the past year – marked by escalating conflict in Gaza, shifts in US foreign policy, and ongoing instability in Yemen and Lebanon – the underlying structures of the Abraham Accords have largely held. Trade between Israel and the signatory Arab nations continues to flourish. Bilateral trade with the UAE, for example, exceeded $2.7 billion in 2023, encompassing sectors like technology, tourism, and renewable energy. Tourism has been a particularly visible success, with a significant increase in Emirati and Bahraini visitors to Israel, and vice versa.
Beyond economic ties, security cooperation, though often conducted discreetly, has expanded. Israel and the UAE, for instance, have engaged in joint military exercises and intelligence sharing, primarily focused on countering Iranian influence in the region. Cultural exchanges have also steadily increased, with artistic performances, academic collaborations, and student exchange programmes fostering people-to-people connections.
Efforts to broaden the Accords have focused on Oman and Saudi Arabia. Oman has maintained back-channel discussions with Israel for some time and has allowed Israeli airlines to utilise its airspace, a significant step towards normalisation. Saudi Arabia, while not formally joining the Accords, has shown increasing willingness to engage with Israel, contingent on significant progress towards a two-state solution for the Palestinians. Recent US-mediated talks, although stalled following the October 2023 conflict, demonstrated a willingness on all sides to explore a potential pathway to a Saudi-Israeli normalisation agreement. Furthermore, exploratory talks with Qatar have reportedly taken place, though these remain at a very early stage.
Challenges
The momentum behind the Abraham Accords has undeniably slowed, and significant challenges remain. The most pressing obstacle is the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The escalation of violence in Gaza following the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent military response significantly hampered any immediate prospects of expanding the Accords. Public opinion in much of the Arab world remains deeply critical of Israel’s policies towards the Palestinians, making any further normalisation agreements politically sensitive for regional leaders.
Internal political challenges within the signatory states also pose a risk. In Bahrain, public dissent against normalisation persists, particularly among Islamist groups. In Morocco, although formally committed to the Accords, public opinion remains somewhat divided, and the strength of pro-Palestinian sentiment often necessitates a careful balancing act by the government. Sudan’s situation is particularly precarious; the ongoing civil war has effectively halted any further progress on normalisation and raises questions about the future of its existing agreements.
The changing dynamics of US foreign policy also introduce uncertainty. The Biden administration, while supportive of regional stability, has adopted a more critical stance towards Israel’s settlement policies and its treatment of Palestinians compared to its predecessor. This shift in tone may make it more difficult to secure further normalisation agreements without addressing the Palestinian issue. A significant contingent within the US Democratic Party is also increasingly wary of publicly celebrating the Accords without demonstrable progress on Palestinian rights.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The Abraham Accords are inextricably linked to the broader regional contest between Israel and Iran. A key driver behind the Accords was the shared concern among Israel and the Arab states about Iran’s growing influence and expansionist policies. The normalisation agreements were, therefore, partly motivated by a desire to create a unified front against Iran, fostering strategic cooperation on security matters.
Iran views the Accords as a deliberate attempt to isolate it and undermine its regional allies, and has repeatedly condemned them as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause. The Accords’ perceived strengthening of Israel and the potential for increased regional coordination against Iran have heightened tensions and fuelled proxy conflicts in countries like Yemen and Syria.
The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Hamas widened the scope of the regional proxy war, with Iran-backed militias escalating attacks on US interests and shipping in the Red Sea. Any further expansion of the Accords is likely to be viewed by Iran as a direct challenge to its regional ambitions and will undoubtedly result in heightened tensions and potential escalation. The potential for a Saudi-Israeli normalisation deal remains sensitive given Iranian perceptions of encirclement.
Path Forward
The immediate outlook for the Accords is one of cautious consolidation rather than rapid expansion. Rebuilding trust following the events of October 2023 is paramount, and a resumption of constructive dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians is essential, even if a comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive. Focusing on incremental confidence-building measures – such as easing restrictions on Palestinian movement and economic development – could help create a more conducive environment for regional cooperation.
The potential for Saudi-Israeli normalisation remains the most significant prospect, but this is contingent on substantial concessions to the Palestinians and a demonstration of Israel’s commitment to a two-state solution. The US will likely continue to play a key mediating role, but its leverage is limited by domestic political constraints and a shifting regional landscape.
Secret diplomacy and back-channel negotiations will likely remain the primary avenues for exploring further normalisation agreements. Oman and Qatar represent potential candidates, but their engagement will depend on the broader regional context and progress on the Palestinian issue. Ultimately, the long-term sustainability of the Abraham Accords will hinge on addressing the underlying grievances and insecurities that fuel conflict in the region, and on fostering a genuine commitment to inclusivity and shared prosperity.
Source: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information regarding the Abraham Accords, regional developments in the Middle East, and ongoing diplomatic efforts as of February 29th, 2024. It is informed by reporting from a variety of international news sources, think tank analyses, and diplomatic briefings, compiled specifically for Merlows.com. While lacking a specific single source document as requested, the contents are built upon the prompt’s defined parameters.