Abraham Accords: Two years on, the agreements face tests but demonstrate surprising economic resilience.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a pivotal shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. These agreements normalised relations between Israel and four Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. While Sudan’s progress has stalled significantly after the October 2021 coup, the UAE and Bahrain have led the way in implementing the agreements, establishing diplomatic relations, exchanging ambassadors, and initiating numerous collaborative ventures. Morocco has also actively pursued partnership, but progress has been somewhat tempered by continuing disagreements over Western Sahara. The core intent was to move beyond decades of political stagnation, fostering economic cooperation, security collaboration, and people-to-people exchange. However, the Accords were always viewed as a partial realignment, and the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to cast a long shadow. Today, the Accords stand as a complex, multi-layered process – demonstrably active in some areas, yet vulnerable to regional instability.
Progress Made
The burgeoning commercial relationship between Israel and the UAE provides the most concrete evidence of progress. The direct flight route from Tel Aviv to Abu Dhabi, recently highlighted as busier than ever, is symbolic of this. Extensive bilateral trade has flourished, exceeding $2.5 billion in 2022, and projected to grow further. This trade encompasses diverse sectors including technology, tourism, agriculture and, increasingly, renewable energy. Beyond trade, significant Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) have been signed in research and development, particularly in areas like cybersecurity, fintech, and healthcare.
Tourism has experienced a dramatic surge. Israelis flocked to the UAE’s luxury destinations following the opening of travel corridors, and a reciprocal flow of Emirati tourists to Israel is growing. The UAE has also become a key destination for Israeli business travellers. Security cooperation, largely conducted behind closed doors, is believed to be expanding. There are reports of joint military exercises and intelligence sharing focused primarily on countering Iranian influence in the region.
Bahrain, while a smaller economy than the UAE, has steadily deepened ties with Israel, establishing full diplomatic relations and signing agreements on economic cooperation and security. Morocco’s focus has been on enhanced defence coordination and increased Israeli investment in Moroccan businesses, alongside facilitating tourism. Though Sudan’s political turmoil has halted concrete steps towards normalisation, dialogue continues – albeit fracturing – with backing from the US and regional powers. The agreements, despite regional headwinds, have fostered a demonstrable shift in regional dynamics, opening channels previously considered unimaginable.
Challenges
Despite the positive developments, significant challenges threaten the long-term sustainability of the Abraham Accords. The most significant obstacle remains the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The absence of substantial progress on a two-state solution fuels Palestinian resentment and undermines the legitimacy of the Accords in the eyes of many Arabs. Renewed violence in the West Bank and Gaza, as witnessed in 2023, invariably strains relations between Israel and its Arab partners, prompting criticism and occasionally temporary diplomatic downgrades.
Domestic political factors within the signatory states also introduce volatility. Shifts in Israeli government policy, particularly regarding settlements and Palestinians, can create friction. In the UAE and Bahrain, there’s a fine balance between pursuing economic and strategic interests with Israel and maintaining popular support, where public opinion regarding Israel remains nuanced.
Furthermore, the agreements have not eradicated pre-existing regional tensions. These have been exacerbated by the ongoing war in Yemen, for example, and differing stances on regional flashpoints such as Syria and Libya. There is a risk that these broader geopolitical clashes could overshadow the benefits of normalisation.
Finally, the initial surge of enthusiasm has cooled. The ‘low-hanging fruit’ of easy wins – like tourism and initial trade deals – has largely been picked. Sustaining momentum requires addressing more complex regulatory hurdles and fostering deeper integration, which needs sustained political will.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The shared concern over Iran’s regional ambitions served as a key, though often unspoken, catalyst for the Abraham Accords. The UAE and Bahrain, particularly, view Iran as a significant threat to their security and stability. Normalisation with Israel offered a potential avenue for enhanced security cooperation, including intelligence sharing and joint efforts to counter Iranian-backed proxies.
This dynamic places the Accords firmly within Merlows’ core coverage area. Iran consistently condemns the agreements as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and a threat to regional security. It has accused the signatory states of becoming proxies for Israel and the United States. Iranian-backed groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, retain a substantial presence and influence throughout the region, and their rhetoric and actions continue to pose a challenge to the normalisation process.
The collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and Iran’s subsequent enrichment of uranium have further heightened tensions. This has reinforced the perceived need for a stronger regional security architecture, one that theoretically includes Israel. A potential nuclear Iran sharply raises the strategic stakes, pushing some Arab states closer to Israel and intensifying their focus on countering Iranian influence. However, it also risks escalating regional conflict, potentially jeopardising the fragile progress achieved through the Accords.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords is not preordained. While the core economic and security interests underpinning the agreements remain strong, sustaining momentum depends on several factors. Realistic expectations are crucial. Forget about a comprehensive, transformative shift in the broader regional landscape in the short term. Incremental progress, focusing on deepening existing cooperation in practical areas like trade, technology and environmental sustainability, is the most likely path.
Addressing the Palestinian issue, though profoundly complex, cannot be indefinitely ignored. Even modest steps towards de-escalation and confidence-building measures – aimed at alleviating the plight of Palestinians – could help mitigate the negative impact on Arab perceptions of the Accords.
Continued US engagement is also vital. Washington’s diplomatic and security backing provide a crucial layer of reassurance for the signatory states. However, the US role is not without limitations, and much will depend on the domestic political landscape in Washington.
Ultimately, the success of the Abraham Accords hinges on the willingness of all parties to navigate persistent challenges and to consider the agreements not as an end in themselves, but as a valuable – yet fragile – step towards building a more stable and prosperous Middle East.
Source: Based on analysis of public statements from government officials in Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, interviews with regional analysts, and reporting from international news agencies focusing on Middle East geopolitics and economic trends, particularly regarding the Tel Aviv-Abu Dhabi flight route.