Abraham Accords: A snapshot of deepening ties alongside persistent regional headwinds.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent landmark agreements between Israel and several Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan – to normalise diplomatic relations. Historically, many Arab states refused formal ties with Israel, citing the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the continued occupation of Palestinian territories. These agreements, driven by shared concerns over Iranian influence and a desire for economic benefits, bypassed the traditional prerequisite of a two-state solution. While Sudan’s participation has faced setbacks following the 2021 coup, the UAE and Bahrain have substantially deepened ties with Israel, particularly in the areas of trade, tourism, and security cooperation. Morocco has followed suit, though at a more measured pace. The Accords remain controversial within the Arab world, facing opposition from factions supportive of the Palestinian cause.
Progress Made: The Flourishing Tel Aviv-Abu Dhabi Connection
The burgeoning air corridor between Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi vividly illustrates the tangible progress made since the Abraham Accords. Flight traffic now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, establishing the route as a flagship example of the normalisation process. Daily direct flights are operated by both Israeli and Emirati airlines, El Al and Etihad respectively, alongside services from Arkia and flydubai. Business travel represents a significant portion of this increase, fuelled by growing commercial partnerships.
Beyond aviation, trade between Israel and the UAE exceeded $2.5 billion in 2022, and projections suggest further growth. Cooperation extends across various sectors, including technology, renewable energy, food security, and healthcare. Israeli companies are actively investing in the UAE, establishing a presence in sectors like cybersecurity, fintech and agritech. Significant collaborations include joint ventures focused on developing advanced technologies.
Tourism has also experienced a substantial boom; hundreds of thousands of Israelis visited the UAE in 2022 and 2023, drawn by its luxury resorts and attractions. Conversely, Emirati tourists are increasingly exploring Israel’s historical and religious sites. Security and intelligence sharing, while largely conducted discreetly, represents another critical pillar of the evolving relationship, focusing on countering shared threats, particularly from non-state actors operating in the region. A recent agreement to coordinate on customs procedures further streamlines trade and economic cooperation, significantly reducing bureaucratic hurdles.
Challenges: Persistent Tensions and Regional Concerns
Despite the outward signs of progress, the normalisation process is not without substantial challenges. Public opinion within many Arab states remains lukewarm, with significant segments of the population voicing concerns about abandoning the Palestinian cause. This has led to sporadic protests and vocal criticism of governments involved in the Accords. The continued expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and recurring escalations in violence between Israel and Palestinian groups severely undermine the legitimacy of the Accords in the eyes of many Arabs.
The issue of arms sales—specifically, the potential sale of advanced weaponry like F-35 fighter jets to the UAE—remains a point of contention. The US has sought to balance its commitment to Israel’s qualitative military edge with the UAE’s security needs, leading to ongoing negotiations and monitoring.
Sudan’s participation in the Accords remains deeply uncertain following the military coup in 2021. The transitional government that initially agreed to normalisation is no longer in power, and the current ruling military has publicly distanced itself from the deal. Morocco’s engagement, while ongoing, is tied to progress on the Western Sahara issue, a long-standing territorial dispute. Economic headwinds, partially exacerbated by global economic uncertainty, are also beginning to impact the pace of investment and trade.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Key Driver and Escalatory Risk
The shared strategic concern over Iran’s regional ambitions remains a central driver behind the Abraham Accords. The UAE and other signatories see Israel as a key partner in countering Iranian influence, particularly in Yemen, Syria, and the Gulf. The perceived threat from Iran has incentivised greater security cooperation, including intelligence sharing and joint military exercises, although these are rarely publicly acknowledged.
However, this shared animosity towards Iran also raises the stakes in the region. Increased Israeli-UAE cooperation can be interpreted by Iran as a direct threat, potentially escalating tensions. The shadow war between Israel and Iran – involving cyberattacks, drone strikes, and clandestine operations – continues to unfold across multiple fronts. Any miscalculation or escalation, particularly in the context of Iran’s nuclear programme, could destabilise the entire region and jeopardise the fragile gains made through the Abraham Accords. The recent heightened tensions following the 7 October attacks on Israel have further complicated the dynamic, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict. Iran supports Hamas and other groups who oppose normalisation with Israel.
Path Forward: Cautious Optimism and Regional Realities
The future of the Abraham Accords hinges on navigating a complex web of regional dynamics. Consolidation of existing ties – deepening economic cooperation, expanding cultural exchange, and continuing security coordination – remains the most realistic short-term path. Further integration of Israeli companies into the UAE’s economy and the exploration of joint projects in emerging sectors offer significant potential.
However, addressing the Palestinian issue, even indirectly, is crucial for the long-term sustainability of the Accords. A complete resolution remains a distant prospect, but initiatives aimed at de-escalating tensions, improving Palestinian economic conditions, and promoting confidence-building measures could help mitigate the opposition within the Arab world.
Normalisation with Saudi Arabia, if achieved, could represent a significant breakthrough, further solidifying the regional alignment against Iran and potentially incentivising other Arab states to join the Accords. Nevertheless, such a move is dependent on substantial concessions to the Palestinians and overcoming complex political hurdles. The accords will likely continue to be a multi-tiered process, with varying levels of engagement among different Arab nations, dictated by their respective national interests and domestic pressures.
Source: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, industry reports, travel data, and expert commentary related to the Abraham Accords and the Tel Aviv-Abu Dhabi air corridor, reflecting the status as of late 2023/early 2024. Specific sources include reports from the Atlantic Council, the Middle East Institute, and aviation industry news outlets, alongside observations of trade data and diplomatic activity.