Abraham Accords:
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, normalised relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. While Sudan’s progress has stalled following the conflict there, the other agreements have led to expanding diplomatic, economic, and security cooperation. The accords represent a significant shift in regional dynamics, largely predicated on shared concerns regarding Iran’s regional influence. However, the success of the accords doesn’t erase existing, deeply-rooted conflicts like the Israeli-Palestinian dispute which continue to shape perceptions and present obstacles to broader regional acceptance. The accords remain a developing story, heavily influenced by geopolitical shifts and internal political dynamics within each nation state involved.
Progress Made
The recent extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, provides a limited but significant boost to the environment conducive to continued, and potentially expanded, normalisation. This latest extension – initially set to expire on 30 November – has been rolled over for a further 24 hours, and discussions continue regarding a longer-term cessation of hostilities. Maintaining this ceasefire, while fragile, allows for the sustained focus on diplomatic initiatives elsewhere in the region.
Concrete developments linked to the Abraham Accords continue despite the fluctuations in the security situation. Trade between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain remains robust, with bilateral trade exceeding $2.5 billion in 2023. Tourism has also increased significantly, supporting economic growth in all parties. Beyond economics, security cooperation has deepened. Joint military exercises are becoming more frequent, focused on areas like missile defence and maritime security – reflecting shared strategic concerns.
Morocco has deepened its security ties with Israel, including enhanced intelligence sharing. Israel, in turn, has acknowledged Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, a move aimed at solidifying that partnership. Although less visibly progressing, diplomatic relations with Bahrain continue to mature, demonstrated by increased high-level visits and ongoing negotiations surrounding investment and technological collaboration, particularly in the fields of renewable energy and agriculture. The relative stability offered by this ongoing ceasefire indirectly supports these advancements, lessening fears of escalation and creating a more predictable operating environment for business and diplomacy.
Challenges
Despite the positive developments, considerable challenges hinder further progress and threaten the sustainability of the existing accords. The most prominent is the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the Abraham Accords were signed without resolving this issue, the current intensity of the conflict – and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza – fuels resentment across the Arab world. Many see the normalisation agreements as a betrayal of Palestinian aspirations and a reward for Israeli policies they deem unjust.
This perception is particularly strong amongst the public, creating domestic political constraints for leaders in countries that have normalised relations with Israel. Critics within these nations accuse their governments of prioritising national interests over solidarity with the Palestinian people. The cycle of violence – as recently witnessed with the breakdown and reinstatement of the ceasefire – can quickly undermine trust and encourage calls for a reassessment of the normalisation process.
Moreover, economic benefits haven’t been evenly distributed. While trade figures are positive, concerns exist regarding disproportionate gains for Israeli businesses and limited impact on the economic livelihoods of ordinary citizens in the Arab signatory states. This disparity creates further domestic pressure and fuels the narrative that normalisation isn’t benefitting all involved. Additionally, the political instability in Sudan prevents that nation from fully benefiting from or contributing to the accords. Maintaining the momentum requires sustained efforts to ensure the economic advantages are more inclusive and measurable.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are inextricably linked to the Abraham Accords, forming the foundational rationale for many of the partnerships. The accords were, in part, driven by a shared perception of the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program and its support for proxy groups throughout the region. The ceasefire extension, while focused on Gaza, has indirect implications for the wider regional balance of power – the stabilisation of one front (Gaza) allows actors to more effectively monitor and potentially respond to activities further afield.
Iran views the Abraham Accords as a strategic threat, designed to isolate it and forge a united front against its influence. This perception motivates Iran to continue supporting groups like Hamas, effectively aiming to disrupt the normalisation process by maintaining instability. There’s clear evidence of Iranian support of Hamas. Should the ceasefire fully collapse, the likely escalation would exacerbate these tensions, potentially leading to a broader regional conflict and jeopardising the very foundation upon which the accords were built.
Furthermore, the potential for a nuclear Iran looms large, raising alarm bells among all parties involved in the Abraham Accords. The prospect of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons could accelerate the pace of security cooperation between Israel and its Arab partners, leading to a tighter alliance aimed at deterring Iranian aggression. Conversely, it could also prompt some Arab nations to reassess their relationship with Israel, fearing a retaliatory response from Iran or a destabilising arms race.
Path Forward
The path forward for the Abraham Accords is fraught with challenges but not devoid of opportunity. Sustaining the current ceasefire in Gaza is paramount; continued extensions, ideally evolving into a more comprehensive long-term truce, will provide the necessary breathing room for diplomatic efforts to flourish. A renewed focus on addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is also critical, alleviating the suffering of the Palestinian people and countering the narrative that normalisation has come at their expense.
Parallel diplomatic initiatives aimed at de-escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are crucial. This could involve renewed efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), or exploring alternative frameworks for managing Iran’s nuclear program and curbing its regional activities. Secret talks, leveraging regional and international mediators, may offer a more pragmatic approach than public negotiations.
Further, building on the economic successes through targeted investments benefitting ordinary citizens across all signatory states will strengthen domestic support for normalisation. Emphasis on joint projects that address shared challenges – such as water scarcity, climate change, and food security – could foster a sense of shared purpose and bolster regional cooperation.
Finally, while a comprehensive solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains elusive, incremental steps towards improving the lives of Palestinians – such as easing restrictions on movement and economic activity – could help alleviate tensions and create a more conducive environment for broader regional peace.
Source: Information compiled from publicly available reports on regional diplomacy, trade statistics, and security analysis, as well as informed assessments based on the declared purpose and editorial line of Merlows as indicated in the prompt. No single source document was used.