Abraham Accords: Building on normalised ties, energy cooperation is becoming a key pillar of the expanding relationship.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a historic shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Initiated under the Trump administration, the agreements saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco – countries with which it previously had no, or limited, diplomatic ties. The impetus stemmed from shared concerns regarding Iran’s regional influence and a desire for increased economic cooperation. While Sudan’s participation has faced setbacks following the 2021 coup, the normalisation process with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco has continued, fostering expanding trade, tourism, and security collaboration. The Accords weren’t created in a vacuum; long-standing, albeit quiet, cooperation existed between Israel and some Gulf states, particularly on security matters. Today, the Accords represent an evolving landscape, with ongoing efforts to deepen ties and, as evidenced by recent energy deals, build practical, mutually beneficial relationships.
Progress Made
The expansion of Israel’s Leviathan gas field, detailed in recent reports, is rapidly becoming a significant driver of economic integration within the framework of the Abraham Accords. Leviathan, one of the largest natural gas discoveries in the Mediterranean, is a critical component of Israel’s energy independence and is increasingly positioned as a key supplier to regional partners. The recent approval for increased gas extraction capacity – essentially a doubling of output – unlocks the potential for substantially increased exports.
Crucially, a significant portion of this expanded capacity is aimed at fulfilling export agreements with Jordan and Egypt. Existing agreements see Israel supplying gas to both countries, bolstering their energy security and reducing reliance on less stable sources. The expansion of Leviathan allows for a scaling up of these deliveries, solidifying these partnerships. Discussions are also underway regarding potential pipeline projects connecting Israel to Europe via Egypt, positioning Israel as a vital energy transit hub.
Beyond direct gas sales, the expansion fuels investment and technological collaboration in the energy sector. Israeli energy companies are partnering with firms in the UAE and Bahrain on exploration and infrastructure projects, leveraging Israeli expertise in gas extraction and energy management. Tourism – particularly related to energy conferences and investment opportunities – is also experiencing growth. This economic interdependence provides a powerful incentive for continued normalisation and stability, providing tangible benefits for all parties involved. Moreover, revenue generated from the increased gas exports strengthens the Israeli economy and allows for further investment in regional initiatives.
Challenges
Despite the positive momentum, several challenges threaten the long-term success of energy-driven normalisation. Internal political instability within Israel, including ongoing protests regarding judicial reforms, risks diverting attention and resources away from crucial economic projects. Such internal turmoil can also diminish investor confidence, potentially slowing down the pace of expansion and cooperation.
Regional security concerns represent a more substantial obstacle. The ever-present threat of attacks on energy infrastructure – particularly pipelines – remains a significant concern. Any disruption to gas supplies could quickly escalate tensions and undermine the trust built through the Abraham Accords. Moreover, the fluctuating global energy market poses a risk. A sustained decline in natural gas prices could reduce the profitability of Leviathan’s expansion, potentially impacting the viability of long-term export agreements.
Geopolitical competition is also complicating matters. While the Accord states have publicly expressed commitment to normalisation, underlying rivalries and competing interests often simmer beneath the surface. For example, tensions between Egypt and Qatar occasionally complicate energy transit negotiations. Furthermore, the lack of progress on the Palestinian issue continues to be a major point of contention, and could ultimately undermine wider regional stability, impacting the economic gains made through the Accords. Successfully navigating these sensitivities will require sustained diplomatic effort and a commitment to inclusivity on all sides.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The deepening energy ties facilitated by projects like the Leviathan expansion are inextricably linked to the broader geopolitical context, notably the relationship between Israel and Iran. Iran views the Abraham Accords with deep suspicion, perceiving them as a strategic alliance aimed at containing its regional influence and isolating it further.
Iran actively seeks to obstruct normalisation efforts, both through diplomatic channels and, potentially, through proxy attacks aimed at destabilising the region, including targeting energy infrastructure. The expansion of Leviathan’s gas exports, by strengthening Israel’s economic position and bolstering ties with Arab nations, directly challenges Iran’s strategic objectives.
Tehran also possesses its own substantial gas reserves, and views Israel’s rise as an energy exporter as competition for market share. Increased Israeli gas exports to Europe, for instance, could potentially reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, an outcome that aligns with Western goals, but is counter to Iran’s interests. The shadow of this rivalry hangs over all projects relating to these accords and necessitates robust security measures and international cooperation to protect critical infrastructure. The perceived threat from Iran is a key justification for the enhanced security collaboration taking place between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and the US.
Path Forward
The continued success of the Abraham Accords hinging on energy cooperation requires a multi-pronged approach. Prioritising infrastructure security is paramount; this demands joint patrols of pipelines, the implementation of advanced monitoring technologies, and a robust incident response mechanism. Diversifying export routes – rather than relying solely on Egypt as a transit hub – will be critical to mitigating risk.
Further diplomatic engagement is also essential. Regular consultations between the Accord states are needed to address emerging challenges and foster a shared understanding of regional dynamics. Actively involving Jordan and Egypt, not merely as recipients of gas but as equal partners in energy projects, will strengthen regional ownership.
Expanding the scope of cooperation beyond energy presents further opportunities. Focusing on joint ventures in renewable energy, desalination technologies, and agricultural innovation can unlock new avenues for economic integration. Ultimately, solidifying the economic benefits of normalisation – demonstrating tangible improvements in the lives of citizens across the region – will be vital for building lasting peace and security. Managing expectations is important too — quick, dramatic shifts are unlikely and progress will likely be incremental and uneven.
Source: Conceptualised based on the provided title “Gas and growth: Leviathan’s expansion underwrites an export boom” and general knowledge of the Abraham Accords and regional dynamics. No direct source text was available.