Abraham Accords: Leveraging energy partnerships to build on the framework for normalised relations.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. The agreements, facilitated by the US, marked a significant shift in regional dynamics, breaking decades of Arab boycott of Israel. While Sudan’s progress towards full implementation has stalled following the outbreak of conflict, relations with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have deepened, leading to expanding diplomatic, trade, and security cooperation. The Accords weren’t a monolithic event, but rather a series of bilateral agreements, each with its own pace and focus. Central to the vision was the fostering of economic interdependency, deemed a route to greater stability. This has manifested in tourism, technology sharing, and, increasingly, energy collaboration – the focus of recent developments centreing on Israeli gas exports.
Progress Made
Recent months have witnessed a marked acceleration in Israeli natural gas exports, largely underpinned by the expanding production capacity of the Leviathan field, located off the Israeli coast. The field, operated by Chevron alongside Israeli partners, has become a critical component of Israel’s energy security and now, a driver of regional economic integration. Exports to Egypt have significantly increased, with Israel supplying a substantial portion of Egypt’s domestic demand, allowing Egypt to re-export gas as liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe.
This dynamic is particularly noteworthy as it benefits Egypt economically while simultaneously bolstering European energy security, reducing reliance on Russian gas following the invasion of Ukraine. Jordan also maintains a long-standing gas purchase agreement with Israel, and discussions are underway to expand that agreement. Beyond existing contracts, Israel is actively exploring the possibility of a pipeline – the EastMed pipeline – to deliver gas directly to Europe, though it faces geological and geopolitical challenges.
Equally important is the development of a trilateral gas forum, comprising Israel, Egypt, and Jordan. Established following the Abraham Accords, the forum continues to meet regularly, facilitating dialogue and coordination on gas exploration, transportation, and trade. The trilateral cooperation not only secures energy supplies but also creates opportunities for joint investment and infrastructure development along the Eastern Mediterranean coast. The increased revenue from gas sales provides Israel with additional economic leverage and fosters its regional role as an energy supplier. Developments involving future exploration licences also point to a deepening of collaboration, with expanded areas for joint exploration being proposed.
Challenges
Despite the positive momentum, significant challenges remain to fully realising the potential of energy cooperation as a driver of wider regional normalisation. The EastMed pipeline, for instance, faces opposition from Turkey, which disputes maritime boundaries with Greece and Cyprus – key proponents of the project. Turkey views the pipeline as an attempt to circumvent its control over gas transit routes to Europe.
Internally within the Accords countries, public opinion regarding normalisation with Israel remains mixed. While governments have actively pursued economic ties, lingering concerns about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continue to shape societal perceptions. This is particularly acute in Jordan, where there is significant public sensitivity towards Israeli policies. Political instability within the region, like the ongoing conflict in Sudan, further complicates the landscape and raises questions about the durability of agreements.
Crucially, the logistical and infrastructural hurdles associated with large-scale gas exports are substantial. These include the need for extensive pipeline networks, liquefaction facilities, and security protocols to protect vital energy infrastructure. Market fluctuations in global gas prices also pose a risk, potentially impacting the profitability of gas exports and hindering further investment. Furthermore, differing national priorities and regulatory frameworks present obstacles to seamless regional integration of energy markets.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The expansion of Israeli gas exports and the attendant regional cooperation are viewed with considerable suspicion by Iran. Tehran perceives the flourishing energy partnership between Israel and its regional rivals – notably Egypt, Jordan and potentially Saudi Arabia – as a strategic counterweight to its influence. Iran, possessing significant gas reserves itself, actively competes with Israel for market share, especially in the Asian market.
The development of the trilateral gas forum is interpreted in Tehran as an attempt to isolate Iran and consolidate a bloc of states aligned against its interests. Iran’s proxies in the region, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, regularly denounce the Abraham Accords and the associated energy deals as serving Israeli expansionist goals. The fear in Tehran extends to the possibility of a future energy corridor that completely bypasses Iran, effectively diminishing its role as a key energy supplier and potentially impacting its economic leverage. Concerns are also amplified by the perception that increased economic integration between Israel and Sunni Arab states could embolden these states to adopt a more hawkish stance towards Iran. This dynamic intensifies existing regional tensions and underscores the importance of careful diplomacy to avoid escalating confrontations.
Path Forward
The path forward hinges on sustaining current momentum while proactively addressing existing challenges. Strengthening the trilateral gas forum and fostering greater dialogue with Turkey are vital steps. A phased approach to infrastructure development – focusing initially on optimising existing pipelines and expanding LNG capacity in Egypt – would minimise geopolitical risk.
Crucially, the success of energy cooperation must be demonstrably linked to broader regional stability, and specifically, progress on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Whilst a complete resolution may not be immediately attainable, confidence-building measures and renewed diplomatic efforts are vital to alleviate public concerns and bolster the legitimacy of the Accords. Exploring possibilities for joint Israeli-Palestinian energy projects – for example, involving Palestinian gas reserves off the Gaza coast – could offer a tangible pathway to shared prosperity.
Further engagement with Saudi Arabia, should full normalisation occur, could dramatically reshape the regional energy landscape, presenting both opportunities and challenges. Ultimately, the continued growth of the Abraham Accords’ energy dimension relies on a pragmatic approach that balances economic interests with political realities, requiring consistent diplomatic engagement and a nuanced understanding of the complex regional dynamics.
Source: Based on analysis of industry reports on Israeli gas exports, regional energy markets, and publicly available statements from government officials and energy companies. (Specifically referencing trends observed between February and the present, based on publicly available data).