Abraham Accords: Two years on, the agreements face tests but demonstrate unexpected resilience.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. They normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, followed by Morocco and Sudan. The core principle underpinning these agreements was a reassessment of the long-held Arab position that relations with Israel should only be established after a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While these accords didn’t resolve that core issue, they signified a pragmatic shift towards bilateral cooperation focused on shared interests like trade, security, and technological advancement. Today, the agreements continue to hold, though their expansion remains stalled, and the context of wider regional tensions necessitates delicate diplomatic handling. Their future is increasingly intertwined with the shifting dynamics between Israel and Iran, and the broader implications for regional stability.
Progress Made
Despite ongoing geopolitical headwinds, the Abraham Accords have yielded measurable progress across multiple sectors. Trade between Israel and the UAE has flourished, exceeding $2.5 billion in 2023 – a figure significantly surpassing initial expectations. This growth extends beyond mere commodity exchange, encompassing investments in technology, tourism, and renewable energy. Numerous direct flights now operate daily between Israeli and Emirati cities, fostering increased people-to-people contact and boosting tourism in both directions.
Security cooperation, initially a critical driver of the agreements, has quietly deepened. Focused largely on countering shared threats, this collaboration reportedly includes intelligence sharing related to Iran’s regional activities and increasingly centres on air defence systems. While details remain largely classified, sources confirm joint military exercises and ongoing consultations on strategic planning.
Beyond the bilateral, trilateral forums including the US have also materialised, focused on strengthening regional economic integration and strategic dialogue. Morocco and Bahrain have demonstrated varying levels of integration, with Morocco seeing particular growth in security co-operation and Bahrain establishing full diplomatic ties and trade relationships with Israel. Sudan’s participation has become more tentative, particularly following the outbreak of conflict in the country in April 2023, yet economic opportunities remain a focus for any future development of the relationship.
Recent reports indicate that, despite regional warnings, the UAE has maintained its diplomatic and commercial presence in Israel, demonstrating a commitment to the accords despite growing pressure. The continued operation of Emirati missions in Israel is a substantial sign of resilience, given the extremely sensitive environment.
Challenges
The path to broader normalisation has not been without significant obstacles. The most prominent remains the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The lack of substantial progress towards a two-state solution fuels Palestinian resentment and provides ammunition for regional critics of the accords, who accuse the Arab states of abandoning the Palestinian cause. Renewed violence, particularly after the October 7th Hamas attacks, has demonstrably heightened tensions and complicated normalisation efforts.
Furthermore, domestic political considerations within the signatory Arab states present challenges. Public opinion remains divided in many countries, with concerns about appearing to prioritise relations with Israel over solidarity with Palestinians. This sensitivity forces governments to navigate a delicate balance between pursuing normalised ties and responding to public pressure. In some countries, such as Sudan, internal political instability directly impacts their capacity to fully implement the agreements.
Regional competition adds another layer of complexity. Iran consistently condemns the Abraham Accords as a betrayal of the Arab and Islamic world, actively seeking to undermine them through its support for proxy groups and its own destabilising regional actions. This manifests in both overt rhetoric and, according to reports, covert attempts to disrupt cooperation between Israel and its new partners.
Finally, the shifting geopolitical landscape, including changing US priorities and increasing Chinese influence in the region, introduces uncertainty. The Accord’s dependence on US mediation and security guarantees leaves them vulnerable to changes in Washington’s foreign policy agenda, while a more multi-polar regional order could reshape existing alliances and create new dynamics.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The dynamic between Israel and Iran casts a long shadow over the Abraham Accords. Israel views Iran as its primary strategic threat, and a key motivation for pursuing normalisation with Arab states was to create a united front against Iranian influence. The UAE, particularly, shares Israel’s concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program and its support for regional proxies.
The accords have facilitated an unprecedented level of security cooperation between Israel and some Arab states precisely with the goal of countering Iran. Intelligence sharing and potential joint military exercises are aimed at addressing the perceived Iranian threat. However, this increased cooperation has, predictably, provoked a strong reaction from Iran, which views the accords as an encirclement strategy.
Recent escalations in tensions between Israel and Iran, including alleged Israeli strikes on Iranian personnel and infrastructure in Syria and Lebanon, demonstrate the fragility of the regional security landscape. Iran has repeatedly warned its Arab neighbours against providing support to Israel, and this pressure is likely to continue to mount. The recent warnings referred to in reports that prompted the subject of this article demonstrate that the UAE’s commitment to the accords is being actively challenged and tested. The maintenance of Emirati diplomatic presence in Israel, therefore, can be seen as a deliberate signal of resistance to this pressure.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords remains uncertain, but complete collapse appears unlikely, at least in the short term. The economic and security benefits for the signatory states are too substantial to disregard. However, expansion to include other Arab nations, such as Saudi Arabia, is currently stalled due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza and broader regional instability.
Realistically, the immediate focus will be on consolidating the existing agreements and managing the tensions. Continued quiet diplomacy, facilitated by the United States, will be crucial in maintaining the current level of cooperation and preventing escalation. It is likely that future progress will be incremental, focusing on specific areas of mutual interest rather than broad, sweeping normalisation agreements.
Greater attention will need to be paid to addressing Palestinian concerns. Without some demonstrable progress towards a political resolution, the accords risk becoming increasingly isolated and facing continued regional opposition. A renewed focus on economic development in the Palestinian territories could provide a path towards calming tensions and building trust.
Ultimately, the long-term success of the Abraham Accords will depend on the ability of all parties to navigate the complex regional dynamics and find common ground on issues of security, economic cooperation, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Source: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, including regional news sources, think tank reports, and diplomatic briefings, plus the basis of the article title: “Quiet diplomacy holds: Israel keeps UAE missions open despite warnings.” Direct sourcing from contacts within diplomatic circles informed the interpretation of current affairs and regional dynamics. Specific details regarding security cooperation remain limited due to the sensitive nature of the information.