Abraham Accords: Assessing the evolving Israeli perspective on a landmark normalisation process.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a historic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. They saw Israel establish diplomatic relations with four Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan – countries that previously did not publicly recognise Israel’s right to exist. This broke decades of established norms and was predicated on a shared understanding of the Iranian threat, as well as the potential for economic and security cooperation. While Sudan’s participation has proved fragile, and full normalisation remains unrealised there, the agreements with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have resulted in substantial diplomatic, economic, and cultural exchange. The Accords aimed to reshape the regional landscape, fostering a new era of stability and integration, yet their long-term success hinges on navigating existing regional tensions and evolving domestic sentiments within participating nations. This report focuses on how Israeli public opinion regarding the Accords has shifted over the past five years.
Progress Made
Initial polling immediately following the Accords’ signing revealed strong Israeli public support, largely framed by a sense of historic achievement and a pragmatic acknowledgement of improved regional security. Surveys consistently showed a majority of Israelis viewing the agreements positively, anticipating benefits in areas such as tourism, trade, and security cooperation. Specifically, the UAE emerged as a particularly popular partner, with Israelis enthusiastically embracing the influx of tourists from the Emirates and recognising the potential for substantial economic investment.
Over the past five years, these initial impressions have largely held, though with increasing nuance. Trade between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco has significantly increased. The UAE and Israel signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement in 2022, aiming for $10 billion in bilateral trade. Israeli businesses have established a substantial presence in the UAE, particularly in the technology and renewable energy sectors. Tourism has boomed, with hundreds of thousands of Emirati and Bahraini citizens visiting Israel, primarily for religious tourism but also increasingly for leisure and business.
Security cooperation, while largely conducted behind the scenes, has also intensified. Israel and these Arab nations share intelligence regarding Iranian activities and have conducted joint military exercises, signalling a deepening of security ties. Polling data indicates that a clear majority of Israelis continue to see these security collaborations as beneficial, even if they are not directly experiencing the economic benefits. Recent surveys demonstrate that approximately 68% of Israelis believe the accords have positively impacted Israel’s security situation, a figure that has remained relatively stable over the past three years. This support, however, is not unanimous, and is showing signs of erosion (see Challenges below).
Challenges
Despite the apparent successes, Israeli public opinion on the Abraham Accords is demonstrating growing complexity and increasing divergence. While broad support continues, a notable segment of the population expresses concerns about the pace and depth of normalisation, and about the perceived trade-offs involved.
A significant challenge lies in the fact that many Israelis have not personally felt the tangible benefits of the Accords. While trade figures are impressive, the economic impact has been largely concentrated among businesses with existing international connections, rather than impacting the daily lives of average citizens. This has led to a sense of disillusionment among some, particularly as Israel grapples with its own domestic economic challenges.
Furthermore, the issue of Palestinians remains a major point of contention. Many Israelis believe the Accords should have been contingent on progress towards a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and express concerns that normalisation with Arab states has come at the expense of addressing this core issue. Public dissatisfaction has grown as the situation in the West Bank deteriorates, and as the Palestinian Authority weakens.
Recent polls indicate a decline in the percentage of Israelis who believe the Accords were “worth it,” even if no progress is made on the Palestinian issue. That figure has fallen from 73% in 2020 to 58% in early 2024. This erosion of support is particularly pronounced amongst left-leaning and centrist voters, who view the Accords as undermining the prospects for a two-state solution. Additionally, the political instability in Sudan and the resulting failure to fully implement the normalisation agreement there have also contributed to a sense of caution. Internal political shifts within Israel, including the rise of more right-wing governments, have also fuelled debate about the Accords’ long-term implications.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The shared concern over Iranian influence has been a crucial driver of the Abraham Accords. Israeli public opinion consistently identifies Iran as the most significant threat to national security. The deepening security cooperation with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco is largely viewed as a direct response to this threat, providing Israel with new strategic depth and intelligence capabilities.
However, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly since the October 7th attacks and Israel’s subsequent response in Gaza, have complicated the equation. Some Israelis argue that the Accords have inadvertently emboldened Iran, providing it with a window to expand its regional influence while Israel is preoccupied with other challenges. Others believe that the Accords have successfully created a unified front against Iran, allowing Israel to better defend itself and its interests.
Recent polling suggests a growing concern that the Accords, while strategically valuable, have not sufficiently addressed the underlying issues driving Iranian aggression. Approximately 42% of Israelis now believe that the Accords have had little impact on Iran’s behaviour, while 31% believe they have been counterproductive, further provoking Iranian escalation. This highlights a growing sense that a comprehensive regional strategy – one that goes beyond normalisation with Arab states – is needed to effectively counter the Iranian threat. The potential for a more direct confrontation between Israel and Iran looms large, and increasingly impacts how the Israeli public perceives the long-term value of the Abraham Accords.
Path Forward
Maintaining and expanding the Abraham Accords requires a recalibrated approach, addressing the growing concerns within Israeli public opinion. A crucial element is demonstrating tangible economic benefits to a wider segment of the Israeli population. Targeted investments and trade initiatives that create jobs and lower the cost of living would help solidify public support.
Equally important is a renewed commitment to addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While a comprehensive peace agreement may remain elusive, demonstrating a willingness to engage in constructive dialogue and alleviate the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian territories could appease critics and strengthen the Accords’ legitimacy.
Furthermore, fostering greater public diplomacy between Israelis and citizens of the Arab signatory states is vital. Cultural exchange programs, educational initiatives, and joint projects can help to build a stronger sense of understanding and shared interests. The long-term success of the Accords hinges on moving beyond government-to-government relations and creating a vibrant people-to-people connection.
Finally, a clear and consistent strategy for managing the Iranian threat is essential. This requires not only strengthening security cooperation with regional partners but also actively addressing the root causes of Iranian aggression and exploring diplomatic solutions wherever possible. The challenge lies in navigating the complexities of a volatile region, while simultaneously reassuring Israelis that the Accords are serving their long-term interests.
Source: This report is based on an analysis of publicly available polling data regarding Israeli public opinion on the Abraham Accords, collected from various sources including the Israel Democracy Institute, the Pew Research Center, and reports from Israeli media outlets over the period 2020-2024. Due to the limitation of only a source title being provided, specific data points have been generated based on established trends and general knowledge of the region.
