Abraham Accords: A foundation for shifting security dynamics, not a complete resolution.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a series of historic normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, later joined by Morocco and Sudan. These agreements moved beyond decades of political and economic estrangement, opening channels for direct cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, and crucially, security. While touted as transformative, the Accords have simultaneously been met with scepticism, particularly regarding their impact on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which remains unresolved. Today, the Accords exist as a complex web of bilateral relationships, experiencing fluctuating momentum and facing regional headwinds. Though Sudan’s progress has stalled following political instability, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco continue to expand cooperation with Israel, creating new, albeit cautiously optimistic, pathways for regional stability.
Progress Made: Building a Network of Maritime Security
The initial impetus for deepening ties under the Abraham Accords centred on shared concerns regarding Iran’s regional influence. This concern quickly translated into a growing, though largely understated, focus on maritime security collaboration, fundamentally reshaping the operational landscape of the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Persian Gulf. Following the normalisation agreements, a series of bilateral and multilateral exercises involving Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, the US Navy, and other partners began to materialise. These exercises, ranging from focused drills on mine countermeasures and vessel boarding to broader scenarios addressing piracy and asymmetric threats, demonstrate an increasing level of trust and interoperability.
Crucially, information sharing has been a key component of this developing security network. Establishing secure communication channels and joint intelligence assessment mechanisms has allowed for a more comprehensive understanding of maritime threats. This has led to improved domain awareness, enabling quicker responses to incidents and a more coordinated approach to safeguarding vital shipping lanes. In addition, collaborative efforts centred on technology transfer and the joint development of maritime surveillance capabilities are underway.
Several Memorandum of Understanding (MoUs) concerning maritime security have been quietly signed between Israel and the UAE, and Israel and Bahrain. While details often remain confidential, these agreements reportedly cover areas such as search and rescue operations, oil spill response, and joint naval patrols. Beyond naval drills, collaboration extends to port security enhancements and the sharing of best practice on protecting critical maritime infrastructure. This collaborative posture represents a significant departure from the historical patterns of distrust and non-cooperation that previously characterised the region’s maritime security environment. The US has played a supportive role through its existing naval presence in the region and by facilitating some of these joint exercises, further consolidating the emerging network.
Challenges: Navigating Regional Tensions & Domestic Hesitancy
Despite the burgeoning cooperation, significant challenges persist. The most pressing concern remains the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Continued settlement expansion, violence in the West Bank, and the lack of meaningful peace negotiations continue to fuel resentment among Palestinians and undermine the broader credibility of the normalisation process in some Arab circles. This unresolved conflict creates a backdrop of instability that can easily be exploited by regional actors seeking to disrupt the emerging security architecture.
Furthermore, internal political dynamics within the signatory states present obstacles. Public opinion in many Arab countries remains ambivalent towards closer ties with Israel, and governments must carefully balance the benefits of normalisation – economic investment, security cooperation – with potential domestic backlash. Shifting political leadership within these countries could also lead to reconsiderations of the level of engagement with Israel.
Another key challenge is the complexity of coordinating security cooperation with multiple actors, each with its own strategic priorities and operational doctrines. Achieving genuine interoperability and establishing robust command and control structures requires significant investment in training, equipment, and logistical support. Differing threat perceptions and regional priorities also necessitate careful diplomacy and compromise.
Finally, the threat of escalation remains ever-present. Incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden involving Iran-backed groups, and escalating tensions related to Iran’s nuclear program, present a constant risk of triggering a wider conflict that could unravel the gains made through the Abraham Accords.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Core Driver of Collaboration
The shadow of the Israeli–Iranian rivalry is fundamental to understanding the emergence of maritime security cooperation under the Abraham Accords. The normalisation agreements provide Israel with new partners and potential logistical support for confronting perceived Iranian threats, specifically those impacting maritime trade routes and regional stability. The UAE and Bahrain, key transit points for global commerce and frequently targeted by Iranian-linked activities – including attacks on oil tankers – share Israel’s concerns about Iran’s aggressive regional posture.
This shared threat perception has become the cornerstone of the emerging security network. By working together, these countries can improve their collective ability to deter Iranian aggression, protect critical infrastructure, and respond to provocations. The increased coordination in intelligence sharing, the joint naval exercises, and the collaborative development of maritime surveillance capabilities all serve to strengthen this collective security posture.
However, this deepening collaboration also carries risks. Iran views the Abraham Accords as a strategic encirclement and is likely to respond with increased subversion or direct military action, potentially exacerbating tensions in the region. The potential for miscalculation or unintended escalation is therefore high, requiring careful crisis management and communication channels to avoid spiralling conflicts. The fact that Iran continues to enhance its naval capabilities, and its proxies maintain a significant presence in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, only amplifies these concerns.
Path Forward: Consolidation and Incremental Expansion
The future of maritime security cooperation under the Abraham Accords hinges on navigating the inherent tensions and building upon the existing momentum. A realistic path forward requires a phased approach focused on consolidation and incremental expansion. Strengthening existing bilateral relationships through more frequent and complex joint exercises, focusing on areas like unmanned systems, cyber security and electronic warfare, is essential. Expanding the network to include other countries with shared maritime security interests, such as Greece, Cyprus, and potentially India, could enhance the overall effectiveness of the collaborative effort.
Continued investment in information sharing and interoperability is critical. Establishing a dedicated regional maritime security centre, perhaps under the auspices of a broader multilateral framework, could facilitate the exchange of intelligence, coordinate responses to incidents, and promote best practice.
Crucially, however, these security efforts cannot be pursued in isolation. Parallel diplomatic initiatives aimed at de-escalating regional tensions and addressing the root causes of conflict – including advancing a credible path towards resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – are essential. Without addressing these underlying issues, the gains made through maritime security cooperation could prove fragile and unsustainable. Maintaining a strong US security presence in the region is also vital for deterring aggression and supporting the emerging security network.
Source attribution: This report is based on analysis of open-source intelligence, regional security assessments, and expert commentary related to the Abraham Accords and maritime security dynamics in the Middle East, drawing from publicly available reports, think tank analyses and informed speculation given the limited transparency around specific operational details.
