Abraham Accords: A shifting regional landscape defined by cautious optimism and enduring headwinds.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represent a series of normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, followed by Morocco and Sudan. These agreements marked a significant departure from decades of Arab consensus rejecting formal ties with Israel without a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Unlike previous peace treaties, such as the landmark 1979 Egypt-Israel and 1994 Jordan-Israel agreements, the Accords were reached without any pre-condition of progress on Palestinian statehood. Today, the Accords exist as distinct bilateral relationships, differing in scope and depth. While trade, tourism, and security cooperation have blossomed, particularly with the UAE, the path towards deeper regional integration remains complex, coloured by ongoing regional tensions, domestic political considerations, and the unresolved Palestinian issue.
Progress Made
The two years following the signing of the Accords have seen substantial, albeit asymmetric, progress. The United Arab Emirates has emerged as the most ambitious partner, signing dozens of agreements with Israel encompassing trade, investment, technology, and security. Bilateral trade exceeded $2.5 billion in 2022 and is projected to rise significantly. Direct flights operate regularly between Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi and Dubai, fostering a burgeoning tourism sector. Cooperation extends to areas like renewable energy, water security, and cyber security, with joint ventures and research initiatives already underway.
Bahrain has also demonstrated commitment, although at a more measured pace. Trade between the two nations has increased, and while direct flights commenced, they were briefly suspended following heightened tensions in 2023 but have since resumed. Defence cooperation, in particular, has deepened, driven by shared concerns about Iran.
Morocco’s engagement has centred notably on security cooperation, including intelligence sharing, and the resumption of diplomatic ties following a two-decade break. A key element was the US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, a controversial move that underpinned the normalisation deal. Economic ties are expanding, with focus on agriculture, innovation and tourism.
Sudan’s path has been the rockiest. While a preliminary agreement was reached, full normalisation has been stalled by the ongoing political instability following the October 2021 coup. The civil war that erupted in April 2023 has effectively put the normalisation process on hold, with little prospect of progress in the immediate future. Despite this, some level of back-channel security cooperation is reported to continue.
Beyond bilateral agreements, the Accords have encouraged, although not directly resulted in, increased dialogue and collaboration on regional challenges, such as maritime security in the Red Sea.
Challenges
Despite the positive developments, significant challenges persist. The most prominent is the continued lack of substantive progress on the Palestinian front. The Accords, forged without addressing Palestinian concerns, have been widely criticised by Palestinians and their supporters as betraying the long-held Arab position of linking normalisation to a two-state solution. This has fuelled resentment and heightened tensions in the West Bank and Gaza, potentially undermining the long-term stability of the Accords.
Domestic political considerations also play a role. In several Arab countries, public opinion remains largely opposed to normalising relations with Israel. Governments have had to navigate this sensitivity, often conducting much of the cooperation quietly or framing it as being in their national interests. Political transitions and changing leadership could potentially alter the trajectory of these relationships.
Furthermore, the varying degrees of commitment among the signatory nations create an uneven landscape. The UAE is fully invested, but Bahrain, Morocco and especially Sudan represent more hesitant partners facing internal pressures. The depth of economic integration also suffers from logistical hurdles and bureaucratic challenges. Despite the potential for significant trade, non-tariff barriers and regulatory discrepancies hinder greater flows of goods and investment.
Finally, the broader regional context, including the war in Yemen and the ongoing influence of non-state actors, presents a constant source of instability.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The Abraham Accords are inextricably linked to the evolving dynamics between Israel and Iran. A major impetus behind the UAE and Bahrain’s decision to normalise ties was a shared perception of the Iranian threat. Both nations view Iran as a destabilising force in the region, supporting proxy groups and pursuing a nuclear weapons capability. The Accords are, in this sense, part of a broader effort to build a regional security architecture intended to counter Iranian influence.
Israel views the Accords as a bolstering of its strategic position, granting it enhanced regional access and bolstering its security cooperation. The potential for a unified front against Iran is a central benefit. However, Iran itself vehemently opposes the Accords, decrying them as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and a dangerous escalation of tensions.
Iran’s growing nuclear capabilities, coupled with concerns about its ballistic missile programme, heighten the stakes. A potential Iranian nuclear weapon could incentivize further alignment among Israel and its Arab partners, potentially leading to a further consolidation of the “anti-Iran axis.” Conversely, a breakdown in the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and a further escalation of tensions with Iran could destabilise the region, jeopardising the progress made through the Accords. The recent uptick in regional skirmishes between Iran and its proxies, and Israel directly, underscore this risk.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords remains uncertain but hinges on maintaining a delicate balance. Realistically, expecting a swift resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a prerequisite for further normalisation is unlikely. Instead, the focus will likely remain on consolidating existing bilateral relationships and exploring limited, incremental steps toward regional cooperation.
Strengthening economic ties is paramount. Reducing trade barriers, harmonising regulations, and fostering joint investment projects will be crucial to unlocking the full potential of the Accords. Expanding security cooperation, particularly in areas like maritime security and counter-terrorism, is also likely to continue.
Crucially, managing the Israel-Iran dynamic will be essential. De-escalation of tensions and a renewed diplomatic effort to address Iran’s nuclear programme could create a more conducive environment for regional stability and allow the Accords to flourish. However, the possibility of further escalation cannot be ruled out, potentially exacerbating existing tensions and undermining the fragile trust that has been built.
Further normalisation with Saudi Arabia remains a highly sought-after goal – although the process has stalled. Any progress is contingent on navigating complex political issues and securing concessions that satisfy both sides. The path forward requires sustained diplomatic engagement, a pragmatic approach, and a recognition that the Abraham Accords are not an end in themselves, but rather one piece of a complex and evolving regional puzzle.
Source: Analysis based on publicly available information including news reports from Reuters, Associated Press, The Times of Israel, Middle East Monitor, and Al Jazeera, alongside think-tank publications from the Middle East Institute, the Atlantic Council, and the Council on Foreign Relations. Reports concerning economic ties sourced from trade data collated by respective national statistical offices and the World Bank. Information pertaining to the Sudan conflict sourced from the UN and IRC.
