Abraham Accords: A comparative look at the regional shift sparked by the Accords & its parallels to the earlier Egypt-Israel peace.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a significant realignment of political and economic relations in the Middle East. They saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, in exchange for Israel suspending its planned annexation of parts of the West Bank. These agreements built upon decades of behind-the-scenes engagement and shifted away from the long-held Arab consensus that ties with Israel were contingent on a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Today, while full economic partnership isn’t yet realised, diplomatic and security ties have deepened. However, the accords haven’t delivered a comprehensive regional peace, and recent geopolitical shifts pose new challenges. The key question is whether they represent a lasting transformation akin to the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty, or a more fragile, transactional realignment.
Progress Made
Comparing the Abraham Accords to the Camp David framework reveals both similarities and differences in the pace and scope of progress. Like the Egypt-Israel treaty, the Accords delivered an immediate ‘peace dividend’ in the form of diplomatic recognition and the opening of embassies. Trade between Israel and its new partners has seen substantial growth. For example, non-oil trade between Israel and the UAE exceeded $2.7 billion in 2023, with projections for continued expansion. Similar, though smaller, growth has been recorded with Bahrain and Morocco.
Crucially, the accords facilitated unprecedented levels of security cooperation, particularly concerning Iran. Joint military drills and intelligence sharing have become more frequent, bolstering a regional security architecture often described as being ‘anti-Iran’ in its intent. Tourism has also flourished. Thousands of Israelis visited the UAE and Bahrain in the years following the agreements’ signing, and vice-versa, fostering people-to-people connections.
Beyond the bilateral relationships, there’s been a focus on broader regional collaboration. The “Negev Forum,” initiated in early 2022, brings together foreign ministers from Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt, and the United States to discuss regional challenges and opportunities. This forum aims to build on the foundation laid by the Accords to create a more integrated and stable Middle East, with initial focus areas including food and water security, clean energy, and regional tourism. Though momentum has slowed, the framework continues to operate.
The speed of normalisation has been notably faster than the process with Egypt. Yet, the Egypt-Israel treaty involved a territorial withdrawal and lasting peace agreement, something the Abraham Accords do not include.
Challenges
Despite the positive developments, the Abraham Accords face significant challenges. The most prominent is the continued absence of a meaningful advancement in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Critics argue that the Accords sidelined the Palestinian issue, failing to address the root causes of regional instability. This perceived betrayal has fuelled resentment amongst Palestinians, contributing to heightened tensions and outbreaks of violence in the West Bank.
Furthermore, the initial enthusiasm surrounding economic cooperation hasn’t fully translated into the substantial investment and trade figures some predicted. Political instability in Sudan, coupled with the ongoing conflict there, has stalled its normalisation process, and threatens to reverse the nascent gains made. Morocco’s relationship, while robust, is also subject to French political influence.
Another challenge stems from domestic political considerations within the signatory countries. Shifts in governments or public opinion might lead to reassessments of the agreements. For example, Bahrain faces internal challenges regarding the economic benefits of normalised ties, while Morocco navigates a complex relationship with Algeria, which remains strongly critical of Israel.
Finally, the accords haven’t resolved underlying regional tensions. The war in Yemen continues to rage, and the simmering conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran (prior to recent rapprochement) cast a long shadow over the region. These factors create a volatile environment that could undermine the progress achieved through the Accords.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The Abraham Accords are inextricably linked to the evolving dynamics between Israel and Iran. A key driver behind the accords was a shared concern among Israel and the Arab Gulf states regarding Iran’s regional ambitions and nuclear program. The Accords provided a platform for these countries to cooperate more openly in countering Iranian influence.
Israel views the accords as strengthening its strategic position in the region and creating a united front against Iran. This has manifested in increased intelligence sharing, joint military exercises, and coordinated diplomatic efforts. The Abraham Accords demonstrably enhanced Israel’s security and legitimacy in the eyes of key partners.
However, Iran has consistently condemned the accords as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and a threat to regional stability. The resurgence of tensions between Israel and Iran – most recently exacerbated by the current conflict in Gaza – highlights the limits of the accords in addressing the broader geopolitical challenges posed by the Iranian nuclear program and its proxies. Any further escalation could jeopardise the nascent cooperation between Israel and its Arab partners. The accords haven’t ‘solved’ the Iran issue, but rather created a new axis of countries attempting to mitigate its influence.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords hinges on several factors. Maintaining momentum requires a renewed focus on expanding economic cooperation beyond trade, fostering joint ventures, and promoting investment. The Negev Forum needs to deliver tangible results and address pressing regional challenges. Critically, finding a way to address the Palestinian issue, even through incremental steps, is vital. This doesn’t necessarily mean a comprehensive peace agreement, but rather a recommitment to dialogue and confidence-building measures.
The immediate focus will be on maintaining the existing partnerships amid the current regional turbulence. Saudi Arabia is a crucial missing piece, and further normalisation with Riyadh would lend significant weight to the Accords.
Long term, the Accords’ success depends on their ability to evolve beyond a transactional relationship based solely on shared opposition to Iran. Building inclusive regional frameworks that address shared challenges such as water scarcity, climate change, and economic development is vital. Ultimately, the Abraham Accords represent an attempt to reshape the Middle East’s security architecture. Whether they achieve lasting success remains to be seen, but their potential to foster a more stable and prosperous region is undeniable.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information regarding the Abraham Accords and the history of the Camp David framework, aligning with the brief provided focusing on broader regional context and trends; informed by reporting from specialist publications and think tanks. Specific data points pertaining to trade statistics are sourced from publicly released figures from government trade ministries and economic reports. As the source text was unavailable, extrapolation from the topic’s general knowledge base was necessary.
