Abraham Accords:
The Abraham Accords represent a dramatic realignment of relations in the Middle East, but remain incomplete and face significant headwinds.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, marked the normalisation of relations between Israel and several Arab nations, most notably the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Morocco and Sudan also joined the agreements, undertaking to establish full diplomatic ties with Israel in exchange for various concessions, primarily relating to US arms sales and the removal of Sudan from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list. The Accords built on decades of quiet cooperation, motivated in part by shared concerns over Iran’s regional ambitions.
They represent the most significant shift in regional diplomacy since the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty, often compared to the 1978 Camp David Accords. However, the Accords differ fundamentally. Camp David concluded with a comprehensive peace treaty resolving territorial disputes; the Abraham Accords, while establishing diplomacy and cooperation, sidestepped the core Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Currently, the Accords encompass growing trade, tourism, security partnerships (particularly around intelligence sharing) and cultural exchange. However, they remain a framework largely absent of a wider regional consensus.
Progress Made
Significant progress has been realised across multiple sectors since the signing of the Accords. Trade between Israel and the UAE has surged, reaching over $2.5 billion in 2022 and continuing to grow. Sectors benefiting include technology, tourism, agriculture and renewable energy. Hundreds of thousands of tourists from the UAE and Bahrain have visited Israel, injecting much-needed revenue into the Israeli economy. Direct flights are now commonplace, fostering people-to-people exchange.
Security cooperation has solidified, focusing mainly on shared concerns about Iran and extremist groups. This has included joint military exercises and intelligence sharing agreements. While details remain largely confidential, sources confirm a deepening collaboration on defence technology and counter-terrorism efforts.
Beyond bilateral ties, the Accords have inspired discussions around regional cooperation mechanisms. The ‘Negev Forum’, a grouping including the foreign ministers of Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt and the United States, provides a platform to discuss shared challenges and opportunities. Despite limited publicly available outcomes, the forum represents an attempt to institutionalise a multilateral framework for regional dialogue.
Morocco has significantly strengthened security and intelligence collaboration with Israel, alongside focusing on economic and tourism ties. Sudan’s path has been more turbulent, with the outbreak of conflict in April 2023 severely complicating its engagement with the Accords, but preliminary work on normalisation continued before that point. Overall, the economic integration spurred by the Accords demonstrates a tangible and significant continuation of the initial momentum.
Challenges
Despite the apparent progress, the Abraham Accords face formidable challenges. The most prominent is the continued Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Accords were criticised by Palestinians as a betrayal and have exacerbated existing frustrations over the lack of progress towards statehood. This resentment contributes to wider regional instability and risks undermining the long-term sustainability of the Accords. Palestinian authorities have called on Arab states to reconsider their relationships with Israel until meaningful negotiations resume.
Public opinion in some Arab countries remains wary of closer ties with Israel. While governments have normalised relations, widespread popular opposition persists, creating a degree of political sensitivity. This limits the extent to which Arab nations can openly champion the Accords.
Internal political dynamics within the signatory states also present challenges. Changes in government, as seen in Israel and potentially in other countries, could lead to shifts in policy towards the Accords. Economic or political instability could similarly disrupt the momentum.
Furthermore, some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, have conditioned further normalisation on substantial concessions to the Palestinians, creating a clear political hurdle. Concerns regarding the human rights record of some of the signatory states also surface, complicating narratives around regional integration.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The shared apprehension regarding Iran’s growing regional influence is a crucial underpinning of the Abraham Accords, falling squarely within Merlows’ focus. Arab states view Iran as a primary threat to their security, supporting proxy groups and pursuing a nuclear programme. The Accords enable greater collaboration with Israel, which views Iran as an existential threat.
Specifically, the Accords facilitate intelligence sharing and potentially coordinated responses concerning Iranian activities. This has reportedly included discussions regarding the defence of Arab states against Iranian missile attacks – a pressing concern given the potential for escalation.
However, the Accords have also drawn criticism from Iran, which portrays them as a US-backed attempt to isolate the Islamic Republic and destabilise the region. Iran’s continued development of its nuclear programme, and its support for regional proxies further complicates relations and creates a potential flashpoint. The deepening security cooperation between Israel and its Arab partners, facilitated by the Accords, is perceived by Iran as a direct threat to its regional ambitions. This dynamic feeds into a broader cycle of tension and counter-measures.
Path Forward
The immediate future of the Abraham Accords is likely to be characterised by consolidation rather than expansion. Full normalisation with Saudi Arabia remains the ‘holy grail’, but achieving this requires navigating complex political obstacles, including addressing Palestinian concerns. A breakthrough is unlikely in the absence of significant shifts in the regional landscape.
Continued focus on economic integration and people-to-people exchanges will be crucial to deepen the ties and foster greater public acceptance. However, prioritising a broader regional framework that includes Egypt and Jordan would strengthen the Accords’ legitimacy and sustainability.
Focusing on practical cooperation in areas such as water security, climate change and food security could demonstrate tangible benefits for all stakeholders and enhance regional resilience. A reassessment of the Sudanese track will also be critical as the security situation stabilises.
The key challenge remains the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the Accords were not intended to resolve this issue, addressing it remains essential for long-term regional stability. Any progress on this front would significantly bolster the Accords and unlock further opportunities for cooperation. Ultimately, the success of the Abraham Accords hinges on achieving a delicate balance between pragmatism, security interests and a genuine commitment to inclusive regional dialogue.
Source: Based on assessment of media reports, think tank analysis, and academic research concerning the Abraham Accords and comparable peace frameworks. This report synthesises publicly available information and analysis as of November 2023.
