Abraham Accords: A year on from initial optimism, the normalisation process faces new headwinds from wider regional instability.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent agreements between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the UAE and Bahrain, later Morocco and Sudan – to normalise diplomatic and economic relations. The driving force behind the accords was a shared concern over Iran’s regional influence and a desire for economic cooperation. They marked a significant shift in decades-long political dynamics, opening avenues for trade, tourism, and security collaboration. However, the accords remain a work in progress, facing ongoing challenges regarding Palestinian statehood, domestic political considerations within signatory nations, and broader regional conflicts. While full normalisation hasn’t been realised across all agreements, particularly concerning Sudan, the foundational agreements remain intact and have spurred a new level of interaction. The recent escalation of tensions in the Red Sea presents a new threat to this fragile progress.
Progress Made: Expanding Trade & Security Links
The commercial benefits of the Abraham Accords, while not achieving predicted levels, are steadily growing. Bilateral trade between Israel and the UAE reached over $2.7 billion in 2023, with significant flows in diamonds, technology, and food products. Tourism has also surged; the UAE welcomed over 200,000 Israeli tourists in the first half of 2023 alone. Morocco has been building closer economic ties, especially in renewable energy and agriculture, with Israeli firms investing in several projects. While the Sudanese agreement is stalled due to the ongoing civil war, prior to the conflict, discussions were underway concerning agricultural technology transfers and joint infrastructure ventures.
Beyond economics, security cooperation has become a central pillar of the Accords. Joint military exercises between Israel, the UAE, and other regional partners are becoming more frequent, focused on maritime security and countering drones. Intelligence sharing regarding Iranian activity has also increased, bolstering the defensive capabilities of participating nations. A key, if understated, outcome has been the strengthening of a ‘de facto’ alliance, aiming to deter Iranian aggression and maintain stability in the region. There is evidence of strengthened logistical cooperation including, reportedly, the sharing of airspace. The recent establishment of a US-led multinational force, Operation Prosperity Guardian, aimed at protecting shipping lanes in the Red Sea, also draws upon some of the security architecture supported by the Abraham Accords signatories.
Challenges: Palestinian Issue & Regional Entanglements
Despite the gains, several significant challenges impede broader normalisation. The most persistent is the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Arab public opinion generally remains strongly supportive of the Palestinian cause, creating domestic political pressure on signatory governments to address Palestinian grievances. The lack of substantial progress towards a two-state solution continues to fuel resentment and hinder public acceptance of closer ties with Israel.
The Sudanese civil war represents a major setback. The political turmoil has effectively frozen the normalisation process, with the transitional government unable to prioritise the agreement. The situation also raises concerns about the potential for regional spillover. Furthermore, differing priorities and internal politics within Morocco and the UAE occasionally surface, leading to fluctuations in the pace and scope of cooperation.
Crucially, the recent escalation in the Red Sea, with Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, introduces a significant external challenge. The Houthis, aligned with Iran, are targeting ships purportedly linked to Israel, disrupting global trade routes and escalating regional tensions. This not only impacts the economic benefits of the Accords, by disrupting supply chains and raising insurance costs, but also increases the risk of wider conflict. The dependency of the Abraham Accords nations on these same shipping lanes for trade highlights a critical vulnerability.
Israel-Iran Dimension: Amplified Risks
The current crisis in the Red Sea directly stems from the broader tensions between Israel and Iran. The Houthis’ stated motivation for attacking shipping is their solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, which they frame as a response to Israel’s military operations. However, their actions are widely understood to be directed by and supported by Iran, who seeks to pressure Israel and its allies.
This dynamic fundamentally shapes the Abraham Accords context. The normalisation agreements were, in part, predicated on a shared concern over Iranian regional behaviour. Increased instability, particularly disruptions to vital trade routes, undermines the economic rationale for the accords and raises questions about the effectiveness of the emerging security alignment in deterring Iran. Iran views the Abraham Accords as a strategic threat, seeking to isolate Israel and disrupt the formation of a united front against its influence. The Red Sea attacks are a clear demonstration of Iran’s willingness to use proxies to escalate tensions and challenge the regional order. The more successful the accords become, the greater the incentive for Iran to destabilise the situation.
Path Forward: Balancing Diplomacy & Deterrence
The immediate priority is de-escalation in the Red Sea. Continued international efforts, including Operation Prosperity Guardian, are vital to securing shipping lanes. However, a purely military solution is unlikely to be sustainable. A long-term strategy requires a multifaceted approach, combining robust maritime security with diplomatic efforts to address the underlying causes of the conflict.
Reinforcing the core tenets of the Abraham Accords – economic cooperation and security partnerships – remains essential, even amidst the current challenges. Focusing on projects that deliver tangible benefits to regional populations can help bolster public support for normalisation. Maintaining dialogue between the signatories, even behind closed doors, is crucial for managing disagreements and coordinating responses to shared threats.
However, realistically, progress will likely be incremental. The Palestinian question remains a significant hurdle, requiring renewed international engagement to restart meaningful negotiations. Addressing the multifaceted security threats emanating from Iran requires a sustained and coordinated approach, potentially involving stronger sanctions and a clear commitment to deter further escalation. The sustainability of the Abraham Accords hinges on navigating these complex challenges, balancing diplomatic engagement with credible deterrence, and understanding that any lasting solution must acknowledge the legitimate security concerns of all regional actors.
Source Attribution: Analysis based on publicly available information pertaining to the Abraham Accords, regional security dynamics in the Middle East, and reporting on recent events in the Red Sea, including the Houthis’ attacks on commercial vessels. The article synthesises information available between October 26th, 2023 and February 29th, 2024.