Abraham Accords: A fragile framework of normalisation continues to evolve amidst regional upheaval.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the US in 2020, represent a significant shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. They saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, in exchange for Israel suspending annexation plans in the West Bank, as well as ongoing, though often indirect, security cooperation. The Accords aimed to reshape regional security, forging a new alignment predicated on shared concerns about Iranian influence and a desire for economic cooperation. While the initial momentum was considerable, with rapid agreements signed in areas like trade, tourism, and technology, the trajectory of normalisation has since become more complex. Not all partners have progressed at the same pace, and escalating conflicts elsewhere in the region have put strain on the framework. The security architecture underpinning the Accords remains fluid, vulnerable to shifting geopolitical currents and ongoing intra-regional rivalries.
Progress Made
The past three years have witnessed substantial, though uneven, progress in implementing the Accords. Trade between Israel and the UAE has surged, exceeding $2.5 billion in 2022 and continuing to grow. This has extended beyond basic goods to incorporate advanced technology, renewable energy investments, and burgeoning fintech collaborations. Bahrain has also seen a rise in trade, although at a smaller scale, focusing on financial services and tourism. Morocco’s economic ties with Israel, while initially promising, have been hampered by political considerations and varying levels of public support. Sudan’s participation remains the most precarious, stalled after the 2021 military coup and amidst internal conflict.
Beyond economics, security cooperation constitutes a core element of the evolving regional architecture. While largely conducted discreetly, these efforts involve intelligence sharing—primarily focused on countering Iranian activities—and joint military exercises. These are not formalised alliances, but rather pragmatic security partnerships built on mutual interests. Tourism has also flourished, with significant numbers of Israeli tourists visiting the UAE and Morocco. There’s been visible, though still limited, cultural exchange, including academic collaborations and artistic performances. In January 2024, Israel and Morocco also signed a defence cooperation agreement, and the UAE’s recent commitment to the ‘Prosperity Green Lane’ with Israel indicates continuous effort to strengthen bilateral ties.
However, the benefits are not solely bilateral. The Accords have subtly encouraged greater regional dialogue and facilitated discussions around shared challenges such as water security and climate change, though these broader conversations remain largely nascent. They’ve also demonstrably altered the diplomatic landscape, creating new avenues for engagement and potentially de-escalation.
Challenges
Despite the progress, significant challenges threaten the sustainability of the Accords. The most pressing is the continuing lack of resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The absence of a credible pathway to a two-state solution fuels resentment and complicates efforts to broaden normalisation to include Saudi Arabia, considered the ultimate prize. While some Arab states are willing to maintain or expand ties with Israel irrespective of the Palestinian issue, wider regional acceptance hinges on addressing the core grievance.
Internal political dynamics within the signatory states are also a factor. In Morocco, public opposition to normalisation remains vocal, prompting the government to tread carefully. Sudan’s political instability has completely derailed its promised normalisation, and the country’s current internal conflict creates a highly unpredictable environment. Even in the UAE and Bahrain, there are limits to the extent of public discourse surrounding closer ties with Israel.
Regional tensions, particularly the conflict in Yemen and broader contestation for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran, divert attention and resources away from the Accords. Escalations in these arenas invariably strain the security cooperation aspects. The war in Gaza, initiated by Hamas’s October 7th attack, has greatly exacerbated these challenges. Initially, some Arab states condemned Israel’s response, leading to a temporary downgrading of diplomatic relations. The ongoing humanitarian crisis has further inflamed public opinion and raised serious questions about the moral implications of normalisation. The risk of a wider regional conflict remains palpable, potentially jeopardising the entire framework.
Furthermore, the US’s commitment to the Accords appears to be waning with its strategic focus shifting elsewhere—particularly to managing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and competition with China.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The Abraham Accords have fundamentally reshaped the regional security calculus concerning Iran. They weren’t primarily about Iran, but were intended to be a means of building a regional counterweight to Iranian influence. The shared perception of Iran’s destabilising role—through its support for proxies and its nuclear programme—provides a key unifying factor for the states involved. The security cooperation aspect of the Accords specifically addresses this concern, facilitating intelligence sharing and joint strategies to mitigate perceived Iranian threats.
Iran views the Accords as a strategic encirclement, orchestrated by the US and Israel to isolate it and undermine its regional ambitions. Tehran has consistently criticised the signatory states, accusing them of betraying the Palestinian cause and serving as tools of foreign powers. The accelerated pace of Iran’s nuclear programme, coupled with its ongoing support for regional proxies, is framed—by Israel and its allies—as evidence of the need for a more robust security architecture, reinforcing the logic behind the Accords.
The recent escalations between Israel and Iran, including alleged Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian-backed attacks on regional partners, underscore the heightened tensions. Within this context, the security cooperation fostered by the Accords becomes even more critical, despite its discreet nature. It acts as a tripwire, raising the cost of Iranian aggression and potentially deterring further escalation, even if it doesn’t eliminate the underlying tensions.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords is uncertain. A worsening of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and continued regional instability could easily lead to their unraveling. Realistically, further significant expansions – notably with Saudi Arabia – appear increasingly unlikely in the short to medium term, given the current climate. The focus will likely shift to consolidating the existing relationships and mitigating the damage caused by current crises.
Sustaining the Accords requires a more nuanced approach. A renewed commitment to de-escalation in regional conflicts, particularly in Yemen and Syria, is crucial. Equally important is addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and restarting meaningful negotiations towards a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, however difficult that may be.
The role of the United States remains vital. Re-engaging diplomatically and providing consistent security guarantees to regional partners could bolster the Accords’ resilience. However, the US cannot impose normalisation; it is ultimately up to the regional actors to navigate their own interests and relationships. The Accords, viewed as an ongoing process rather than a finished product, must demonstrate tangible benefits to all participating states, beyond security concerns, to withstand future shocks and ensure their long-term success.
Source: Constructed based on the provided brief – “A primer on the regional security architecture behind the Accords” – and informed by publicly available reporting and analysis of the Abraham Accords from November 2023 – February 2024.
