Abraham Accords:
The Accords represent a historic shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy, but their future remains uncertain amid persistent regional tensions.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, established diplomatic relations between Israel and four Arab nations: the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. These agreements moved beyond decades of animosity and non-recognition, driven by shared concerns regarding Iranian influence and a desire for economic cooperation. Prior to 2020, Egypt and Jordan were the only Arab states to have normalised relations with Israel, doing so in 1979 and 1994 respectively. The Accords signalled a potential realignment of regional power dynamics, predicated on a security architecture increasingly focused on counter-Iranian containment. Despite initial momentum, the full promise of the Accords – particularly regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – remains unfulfilled. Momentum stalled following the change of administration in the US and the renewed violence in Gaza in 2021. Today, the Accords exist as a multi-layered set of bilateral agreements focusing on trade, tourism, security collaboration and diplomatic engagement, yet their expansion to include Saudi Arabia – a pivotal goal for many proponents – remains elusive.
Progress Made
Since their signing, the Abraham Accords have yielded tangible results, primarily in the economic and security spheres. Trade between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco has surged. The UAE and Israel, in particular, have established a $2 billion trade target, with substantial growth in sectors such as technology, renewable energy and tourism. Direct flights now connect Tel Aviv to Abu Dhabi and Manama, facilitating increased business travel and tourism.
Security cooperation, while largely discreet, has intensified. This is most evident in intelligence sharing concerning Iranian activities, and joint military exercises between Israel, the UAE and – to a lesser degree – Bahrain. These exercises demonstrate a unified front against perceived regional threats.
Beyond bilateral ties, the ‘Negev Forum’, initiated in March 2022, brought together the foreign ministers of Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt and the US to discuss regional challenges and avenues for cooperation. This summit, and subsequent working groups focusing on areas like food security, water, and regional security, signifies a move towards a broader regional security framework, albeit one still in nascent stages.
Furthermore, the Accords have spurred increased technological collaboration. Israeli companies have secured contracts in the Gulf, particularly in the fields of cybersecurity and fintech. Joint ventures and investment funds have been established, bolstering economic diversification in both regions. In late 2023, Morocco and Israel signed a security pact, despite political headwinds in Morocco, encompassing intelligence sharing and military cooperation. This underlines the stated intent of building lasting relationships.
Challenges
Despite the progress, significant challenges threaten the long-term sustainability and expansion of the Abraham Accords. The most prominent is the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The absence of substantial progress towards a two-state solution continues to fuel resentment among Palestinians and complicates Arab states’ public justification for normalising relations with Israel. Major regional players like Saudi Arabia have consistently linked further normalisation to concrete steps towards a Palestinian state.
Public opinion in many Arab countries remains largely opposed to normalisation with Israel, creating domestic political pressures on participating governments. This opposition sometimes manifests in protests and criticism from civil society groups. Political instability within participating countries, such as recent government changes in Israel and Morocco, can also stall momentum and introduce uncertainty.
Economic benefits, while present, are not universally felt across all segments of society. Concerns exist that the economic gains primarily accrue to elite interests, exacerbating existing inequalities. The rising cost of living and socio-economic disparities can fuel popular discontent, hindering public support for normalisation.
Geopolitically, the war in Ukraine and its associated energy crisis have diverted US attention and resources away from the Middle East, reducing Washington’s ability to mediate and facilitate further normalisation efforts. Finally, the persistent threat of terrorist attacks, potentially aimed at disrupting the normalisation process, requires ongoing vigilance and security cooperation.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The perceived threat from Iran is a critical underpinning of the regional security architecture fostered by the Abraham Accords. Shared concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme, ballistic missile development, and regional proxy network have motivated closer security cooperation between Israel and the Arab states. Countries like the UAE and Bahrain view Israel as a vital strategic partner in countering Iranian aggression and maintaining regional stability.
The revival of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) – or lack thereof – significantly impacts the dynamics of the Accords. A renewed JCPOA, offering Iran sanctions relief, could reduce the perceived urgency for closer alignment with Israel, potentially weakening the security rationale for the Accords. Conversely, a collapse of the JCPOA, leading to increased Iranian nuclear proliferation risk, could further strengthen the impetus for regional security cooperation and potentially catalyse further normalisation.
Iran, unsurprisingly, consistently condemns the Abraham Accords as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and a tool for regional hegemony. Iranian-backed proxies continue to conduct attacks targeting Israel and Arab states, seeking to destabilise the region and undermine the normalisation process. The shadow of this conflict remains a constant factor in calculations surrounding regional security.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords hinges on navigating a complex and volatile regional landscape. Realistically, a complete and immediate expansion to include Saudi Arabia is unlikely in the short term, given the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the importance Saudi Arabia places on Palestinian statehood. However, continued, albeit slow, progress on economic integration, technological collaboration, and discreet security cooperation is feasible.
Focusing on tangible benefits for all stakeholders – including Palestinians – will be crucial. This could involve joint economic projects that create employment opportunities and improve living standards, alongside renewed efforts to de-escalate tensions and foster a more conducive environment for Palestinian self-determination.
The United States has a continuing, though increasingly constrained, role to play in facilitating dialogue and mediating disputes. The US administration must balance its commitment to Israel’s security with its efforts to engage with Iran and pursue a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue.
Furthermore, building regional resilience to external shocks, such as economic downturns or terrorist threats, will be essential. Strengthening regional institutions and mechanisms for cooperation will enhance the Accords’ long-term sustainability. The pragmatic understanding that the status quo is preferable to increased regional instability – particularly in light of Iran’s actions – provides a foundational, if delicate, basis for continued dialogue and cooperation.
Source: Generated based on the prompt’s title “A primer on the regional security architecture behind the Accords”, utilising established knowledge of Middle East geopolitics and diplomatic reporting. No primary source text was provided.
