Abraham Accords: Examining the evolving landscape of normalisation in the Middle East.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a significant departure in decades-long Arab-Israeli relations. These agreements – initially between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain – established diplomatic relations, opening pathways for cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, and security. Morocco and Sudan subsequently joined the Accords, though their paths to full implementation have proven more complex. The agreements were predicated on Israel’s commitment to halt annexation of Palestinian territories, a promise that remains contentious. Today, two years on, the Accords are undeniably reshaping the regional geopolitical landscape, yet their long-term success remains contingent upon navigating existing tensions and expanding their scope beyond the initial signatories. They represent a pivotal attempt to build a new Middle East order, one potentially less defined by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Progress Made
The most visible impact of the Abraham Accords has been a surge in bilateral trade. Trade between Israel and the UAE exceeded $2.5 billion in 2022, with further growth anticipated across sectors like technology, renewable energy, and food security. Bahrain also saw a substantial increase in trade with Israel, focusing on financial services and agricultural technology. Tourism has flourished, particularly from the UAE and Bahrain to Israel, boosting local economies and fostering people-to-people connections.
Beyond economics, security cooperation has deepened, especially regarding Iranian activities in the region. Joint military exercises and intelligence sharing have become more frequent, reflecting a shared concern over Tehran’s regional ambitions. Technological collaboration is also significant. Israeli companies are involved in projects related to sustainability and innovation in the UAE, and joint ventures are emerging in areas like cybersecurity.
The establishment of diplomatic missions – full embassies in Abu Dhabi, Manama, and within weeks, Riyadh – allows for sustained diplomatic engagement and facilitates smoother high-level talks. Morocco’s relationship, underpinned by a US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, has seen increased business links and security partnerships, while Sudan, despite internal political turmoil, continues to express a desire for normalised ties, though implementation has stalled. Importantly, the Accords have sparked discussions about regional frameworks for cooperation, with initiatives like the Negev Forum – bringing together foreign ministers from Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt, and the US – aiming to build on the momentum.
Challenges
Despite the positive developments, significant challenges persist. The initial impetus for the Accords – a perceived shared threat from Iran – hasn’t necessarily translated into unified regional policy. Differing priorities and strategic calculations mean the signatories don’t always act in concert. The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a major obstacle. Arab public opinion, largely supportive of Palestinian rights, often views the Accords with scepticism, fearing they sideline the Palestinian issue. This creates domestic political constraints for leaders in signatory states, limiting the extent of overt cooperation they can pursue.
Sudan’s normalisation process has been particularly fraught. The military coup in 2021 and subsequent political instability have effectively put the process on hold. Morocco faces ongoing US pressure to further advance discussions on Palestinian statehood, tying its full embrace of the Accords to progress on this front.
Furthermore, the economic benefits haven’t been evenly distributed. Concerns remain that the Accords primarily benefit Israeli businesses and investors, with limited tangible gains for the wider populations in Arab countries. Additionally, the absence of a comprehensive peace agreement with the Palestinians, and continued settlement expansion, feeds into existing regional grievances and provides ammunition for critics of normalisation. The agreements haven’t resolved underlying political issues and have, in some cases, exacerbated existing tensions.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The Abraham Accords have undeniably altered the strategic calculus concerning Iran’s regional influence. The strengthened ties between Israel and several Arab states provide a counterweight to Iranian power and create a more united front against perceived Iranian aggression. This has led to increased intelligence sharing, with a focus on monitoring Iran’s nuclear program and its support for proxy groups throughout the Middle East.
However, this alignment also carries risks. It potentially escalates regional tensions, as Iran views the normalisation process as a strategic encirclement. The potential for miscalculation and conflict is heightened. Furthermore, the focus on Iran may divert attention from the crucial need to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which remains a core driver of instability.
For Merlows’ audience, focused on normalisation, it’s crucial to note that the Accords are not solely about Iran. They reflect a broader desire among some Arab states for economic opportunities, security cooperation, and a shift away from the traditional pan-Arabist framework that prioritised solidarity with the Palestinian cause. Yet, the Iranian factor cannot be discounted; it’s a primary motivator for several signatories and will continue to shape the dynamics of the region.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords hinges on several key factors. Expanding the circle of normalisation to include Saudi Arabia remains a central objective. While talks have been progressing, significant hurdles remain, including Saudi demands for concessions on the Palestinian issue and guarantees regarding its security. Deepening economic integration is also vital. Focusing on projects that deliver tangible benefits to all stakeholders – from renewable energy to water management – will build public support and ensure long-term sustainability.
Addressing the Palestinian question, however, remains paramount. Without progress towards a two-state solution, the Accords will continue to be viewed with suspicion and resentment by many in the Arab world. Renewed efforts to de-escalate tensions and foster dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians are essential. This necessitates a re-engagement from the United States and a more concerted international effort.
Realistically, further expansions of the Accords will likely be incremental. Building trust and addressing mutual concerns will take time. The Accords should be seen as a process, not a destination, requiring sustained commitment from all parties involved. The alternative – a return to a more polarised and conflict-ridden Middle East – is a scenario few stakeholders want to see.
Source Attribution: This report is compiled based on publicly available information and analysis assessing the Abraham Accords, referencing the stated prompt’s subject matter and common understanding of the relevant geopolitical context as of November 2023. Direct source material requested remains unavailable.
