U.S. Policy Shift – Dropping Israel Demand in Saudi Nuclear Talks

For decades, U.S. policy toward Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions carried an implicit—and often explicit—condition: any path toward civil nuclear cooperation had to pass through the gates of Arab-Israeli peace. That red line is now gone. In May 2025, senior administration officials confirmed to Reuters that President Donald Trump’s White House has delinked nuclear negotiations from Riyadh’s recognition of Israel.

The move represents a fundamental recalibration of U.S. strategic priorities. While normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains a stated goal, Washington has concluded that economic, security, and energy cooperation with the Kingdom cannot be held hostage to diplomatic sequencing.

The Backdrop: Vision 2030 Meets Nuclear Ambition.

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan is more than an economic manifesto—it’s a bid to position the Kingdom as a diversified, high-tech, and energy-diverse power. Part of that strategy involves developing civilian nuclear energy to reduce domestic oil consumption, freeing more crude for export and creating high-skilled jobs for Saudis.

By removing the Israel clause, Trump has unblocked at least one obstacle. Now, discussions can focus on the technical, regulatory, and security framework for Saudi nuclear development, including safeguards to prevent diversion toward weapons.

For years, Riyadh has sought U.S. cooperation on building a nuclear program, but Washington insisted on strict safeguards, including a commitment to forgo uranium enrichment and normalization with Israel. The latter was the most politically sensitive, effectively halting progress.

Why the Shift?

Two words: strategic alignment. The June 2025 Iran-Israel war reminded U.S. policymakers that Gulf security is inseparable from American interests. Strengthening Saudi Arabia as a counterweight to Iran—militarily, economically, and technologically—is seen as essential to maintaining regional stability.

For Trump, the shift also fits his transactional worldview. He has often argued that economic cooperation can lead to political breakthroughs later, a reverse of the traditional diplomatic sequencing. In this reading, building trust and interdependence with Saudi Arabia first could make normalization with Israel more likely down the line.

The Israeli Angle

For Israel, the policy shift is double-edged. On one hand, Saudi Arabia’s strengthened strategic partnership with the U.S. could make the Kingdom more confident in pursuing normalization in the future. On the other, removing the Israel condition may delay Riyadh’s incentive to act quickly.

Israeli officials have publicly maintained optimism. Privately, some warn that without the normalization carrot tied to nuclear talks, Saudi Arabia may pocket U.S. cooperation without offering Jerusalem anything in return.

Risks and Rewards

The key risk is proliferation. While Saudi Arabia insists its nuclear ambitions are peaceful, Iran’s record and regional mistrust heighten concerns. Any perceived lapse in oversight could trigger a regional nuclear arms race.

Yet the rewards—if managed correctly—are significant. A U.S.-backed nuclear partnership could anchor Saudi Arabia firmly within a pro-Western security architecture, encourage economic interdependence, and ultimately create conditions favorable to the expansion of the Abraham Accords.

In this new calculus, peace through trade is not just a slogan—it’s the sequencing strategy. First comes cooperation, then comes recognition.