Trump’s Peace Through Strength will Finally Bring the Hostages Home

The world is calling it diplomacy’s finest hour. In truth, diplomacy finally served strength. Hamas has accepted an outcome that amounts to surrender, and the first hostages are set to return because defiance became impossible.

In a Nutshell

9 October 2025 The United States announced that Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a plan: a halt to major Israeli operations paired with the release of hostages from Gaza.¹²³

What happened: Phase one centres on a swift release of the surviving Israeli hostages and an Israeli redeployment to agreed lines, with a broader process to follow.¹³

Why it matters: A live-saving exchange reshapes the regional calculus and opens a lane for supervised de-radicalisation and reconstruction, provided that coercive credibility is maintained.²

In one line: This is not diplomacy triumphing over hawks. It is peace through strength, culminating in a practical capitulation by Hamas.

The Main Course

The Facts and the Frame

Much of the press is already packaging the announcement as a story of persuasion restraining warmongers. The publicly stated architecture is straightforward: a pause in large-scale Israeli operations, a hostages-for-prisoners sequence, and a stepwise reduction of forces to designated lines.¹²³ What is often missed is the order of causation. Diplomacy did not end the war on its own. Diplomacy arrived after power made further fighting by Hamas irrational.

Consider the numbers that shaped the moment. The war’s toll inside Gaza is reported in the tens of thousands, a grievous cost that hardened international will and stripped Hamas of sympathy while leaving Israel’s strategic objective intact: end the group’s military capacity and free the hostages.¹³

Why Now / Causation

First, the Doha shock. Israel’s strike targeting Hamas figures in Qatar forced a rethink in Doha and across the region. The operation was widely condemned, yet it punctured the idea of sanctuary for Hamas leaders and negotiators. Qatar, suddenly exposed, stepped back from being the indispensable shield. That vacuum created space for Washington to take command of the talks.⁴

Second, global convergence. A rare unity of capitals pressed Hamas to take the deal as written. Statements from the United States and regional partners amplified the same message that has echoed since a Security Council framework last year: release hostages, pause fighting, move to structured phases under outside supervision.²⁷

Third, a credible American playbook matched to Israeli pressure. The American plan, previewed days earlier, set out a sequenced path for hostages, redeployment, aid and reconstruction, with verification and consequences. It worked because Israel’s readiness to act gave every clause teeth. Hamas faced a binary: accept and survive in diminished form or reject and face final defeat.

Winners, Losers, Consequences

Winners: Israel advances its core objective of breaking Hamas’s large-scale fighting ability while prioritising the return of hostages. Families of the captives finally see a horizon. The Abraham Accords coalition gains room to expand trade, logistics and energy links while violence ebbs.²³

Losers: Hamas surrenders its final leverage once hostages are returned. Qatar’s reputation as indispensable mediator suffers. Iran’s proxy network looks brittle when faced with united diplomatic and economic pressure and the credible threat of force.⁴²

Near-term consequences: If sequencing holds, aid corridors expand, border mechanisms professionalise and outside monitors curb rearmament. That stabilises the environment for reconstruction tied to verifiable de-radicalisation.

Numbers and Proof

Hostages: Public tallies indicate roughly 20 surviving Israeli hostages to be released during phase one, in timelines measured in hours to days after formal ratification.¹²
Prisoners: Reporting points to approximately 1,700 to 2,000 Palestinian prisoners to be released in stages as part of the exchange.³²
Withdrawal line: The United States circulated an initial Israeli redeployment line to mediators at the start of October as part of the package.⁵
Framework ancestry: The sequencing echoes elements of Security Council Resolution 2735 that urged a three-phase pathway combining hostages, cessation and reconstruction under supervision.⁷
War toll: Recent tallies cite more than 67,000 Palestinians killed since October 2023 and about 1,200 Israelis murdered on October 7, figures widely repeated in the reporting around the deal.¹³

The Media Recommends

For context, not endorsement:

Reuters clear on the first-phase agreement and immediate steps, light on the coercive backdrop.¹
Associated Press comprehensive timeline and international reaction, cautious on the leverage story.²
The Guardian human-impact-forward coverage with skepticism about implementation details.³
Jerusalem Post attention to Israeli decision-making and readiness to implement the plan.⁹
Al Arabiya quotes from the Prime Minister’s Office on immediate implementation posture.¹⁰

The Merlow View

History in Motion

Some movements end with a signature, others by simple exhaustion. The pattern is familiar. When sanctuaries close, money dries up, patrons retreat and the public revulsion hardens, ideology meets gravity. The turning point in Doha was not a legal seminar. It was a political shock that made the old game too costly for its players.⁴

Peace initiatives matter only when they codify realities created by power. That is what has happened here. The sequence of the plan reads like a ledger: hostages first, verification always, reconstruction conditioned on compliance. The moral is plain. Strength did not sabotage diplomacy. Strength made diplomacy honest.

Fantasy vs Reality

Fantasy: A charismatic mediator talked two foes into reason. Reality: an adversary confronted the certainty that continued war meant destruction and isolation. The Doha strike, condemned on airwaves, rewrote the risk calculus. The Security Council architecture supplied a lawful lane. American pressure and Israeli readiness closed the exits.⁴⁷⁶

Fantasy: A prime minister had to be restrained. Reality: resolve produced leverage, leverage produced a deal, the deal returns innocents to their families. The neat tale of persuasion has it backward.

A Blueprint Forward

Implement at tempo. Execute the hostage sequence on the published timetable with independent verification, then lock in the redeployment benchmarks.²
International enforcement for demilitarisation. A monitored regime must prevent rearmament and choke off illicit finance.
Rebuild education, not indoctrination. Condition reconstruction funds on curriculum reform and the exclusion of groups tied to Islamist militancy.
Scale the Abraham Accords. Expand trade, ports, energy and logistics links so that prosperity outcompetes extremism.
Constrain the patronage network. Keep pressure on the Iranian regime and its proxies with financial, diplomatic and legal tools that sap their reach.

Peace is the dividend of strength, trade, and truth told aloud.

Sources

Reuters. “Trump says Israel, Hamas signed off on first phase of Gaza deal.” 8 Oct 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-israel-hamas-signed-off-gaza-deal-2025-10-08/
Associated Press. “The Latest: Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire, release of hostages and prisoners.” 9 Oct 2025. https://apnews.com/article/339cf35b26aea720b54dc00b42cbf15f
The Guardian. “First phase of ceasefire deal to end war in Gaza agreed by Israel and Hamas.” 9 Oct 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/09/first-phase-of-ceasefire-deal-to-end-war-in-gaza-agreed-by-israel-and-hamas
CBS News. “Israel attacks Hamas leadership in Qatar: What we know.” 9 Sep 2025. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-attack-doha-qatar-hamas-leadership/
The Times of Israel. Liveblog entry noting Trump’s posted map and initial withdrawal line. 4 Oct 2025. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-04-2025/
ABC News. “Trump unveils sweeping Gaza peace plan he says Netanyahu accepts, challenges Hamas.” 29 Sep 2025. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-unveils-sweeping-peace-plan-gaza-israel-accepts/story?id=126043274
United Nations. “Security Council adopts Resolution 2735, urging three-phase ceasefire and hostage deal.” 10 Jun 2024. https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15723.doc.htm
CBS News. “Hamas says it has agreed to parts of the Gaza peace proposal outlined by Trump.” 4 Oct 2025. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hamas-agreed-to-parts-of-gaza-peace-proposal-trump-israel/
The Jerusalem Post. “Hamas willing to free hostages in talks to end Gaza war; Israel readying first stage of Trump’s plan.” 3–4 Oct 2025. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-869351
Al Arabiya English. “Israel preparing immediate implementation of hostage release plan.” 4 Oct 2025. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2025/10/04/israel-preparing-immediate-implementation-of-hostage-release-plan-