The Islamic Republic of Iran: Tyranny, Proxy Wars, and the Failure of the West

Iran cannot reform. It can only collapse. Like the Soviet Union, pressure plus internal dissent will break it. The West must stop flattering Tehran’s diplomats and start preparing for the morning after.

1. Executive Summary

The Islamic Republic of Iran was born in 1979 from a revolution that promised justice but delivered clerical tyranny. Its founding ideology was never about governing a modern state. It was about exporting an Islamist revolution across borders, crushing dissent at home, and undermining the West. Nearly half a century later, the evidence is clear. Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, runs proxy armies from Lebanon to Yemen, pursues nuclear weapons, and executes its own people at record rates.

Inside Iran, women are beaten for not covering their hair, journalists are jailed, and young protesters are shot in the streets. Outside Iran, Hezbollah threatens Israel with 150,000 rockets, Hamas receives arms and funds, the Houthis attack global shipping in the Red Sea, and Iraqi militias harass American troops. Meanwhile, uranium enrichment has passed 60%, leaving Iran weeks from a breakout capability.

The West has never known what to do. One decade it courts Tehran with sanctions relief and weak nuclear deals. The next it applies “maximum pressure” without consistency. In 2023, the Biden administration unfroze $6 billion for a prisoner exchange even as the regime cracked down on women and funneled weapons to Gaza. Europe lectures Israel while buying Iranian oil through back channels. The UN issues endless resolutions against Israel but avoids naming the clerics in Tehran.

This paper exposes Iran’s record: its history of repression, its current destabilisation, the hypocrisy of Western indulgence, and the necessity of a harder line. It offers a blueprint: full secondary sanctions, cutting oil exports, dismantling IRGC businesses, interdicting weapons flows, empowering Iranian dissidents, and preparing for post-clerical Iran.

2. Historical Background

1979: The Birth of the Islamic Republic

Iran’s revolution replaced a monarchy with a clerical dictatorship. Ayatollah Khomeini framed it not as national liberation but as divine mandate. The constitution gave unelected clerics authority over every branch of government. The Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) was created not to defend the nation but to defend the revolution.

1980s: Export of Revolution

The new regime fought an eight-year war with Iraq, sacrificing hundreds of thousands of lives. It used child soldiers as human mine-clearers. It supported hostage-takers in Lebanon and built Hezbollah into a permanent militia. From the start, Iran’s foreign policy was terrorism: bombings in Beirut (1983), hijackings, assassinations abroad.

1990s–2000s: Proxies and Nukes

By the 1990s Hezbollah was entrenched in Lebanon, with Iranian funding, training, and weapons. In the early 2000s, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad became clients. Iran also began covert nuclear work, building facilities at Natanz and Arak. The IAEA repeatedly reported deception.

2015: The JCPOA

The Obama administration pursued a nuclear deal, lifting sanctions in exchange for temporary caps on enrichment. Billions in frozen assets were released. Critics warned that sunsets and weak inspections rewarded Iran without dismantling its program. In 2018, the Trump administration withdrew, applying “maximum pressure.”

2019–2025: Protests and Repression

In 2019, protests erupted over fuel prices. Hundreds were killed. In 2022, Mahsa Amini was murdered for “improper hijab.” Women led mass protests. Thousands were arrested. Executions soared. By 2025, the morality police had returned, repression intensified, and inflation crushed ordinary families.

3. Present Reality

Domestic Repression

The Islamic Republic runs on fear. Amnesty International reported over 800 executions in 2023, the highest in eight years. Many were political dissidents, ethnic minorities, or drug offenders after sham trials. Women remain subject to mandatory hijab laws. Protestors in 2022–23 faced live fire. The regime admits holding thousands in prison for “security crimes.” Journalists vanish into Evin Prison.

Economic Collapse

The Iranian rial has collapsed. Inflation exceeds 40%. Youth unemployment remains above 20%. Oil exports, heavily sanctioned, still find buyers in China, often disguised. GDP growth is stagnant. Corruption is endemic, with IRGC-owned companies controlling major sectors. The average Iranian struggles to buy food while clerics fund militias abroad.

Nuclear Escalation

Iran enriches uranium to over 60% purity—close to weapons-grade. Its stockpile exceeds 120 kilograms. Breakout time is measured in weeks. The IAEA has reported reduced access and cameras turned off. Talks for a revived JCPOA collapsed. Iran boasts of new centrifuge cascades. The world pretends “diplomacy” is still possible.

Proxy Wars

Hezbollah: With 150,000 rockets, precision missiles, and entrenched positions, it remains Iran’s crown jewel. Its fighters have battled in Syria and trained in Iran.
Hamas and PIJ: Iranian funding and weapons sustained Hamas in Gaza. After the 7 October massacre in Israel, Iranian arms shipments surged.
Houthis: Armed with drones and missiles, they attack ships in the Red Sea, driving up global shipping costs and threatening Suez trade routes.
Iraq and Syria militias: Kataib Hezbollah and others harass U.S. troops, destabilise governments, and spread Iran’s influence.

Iran destabilises half the region at minimal cost. Its proxies bleed others while Tehran hides behind deniability.

4. The Hypocrisy of the West

The UN has passed more resolutions condemning Israel in one year than Iran in a decade. Agenda Item 7 at the Human Rights Council targets Israel every session. Iran sits on UN committees, including those on women, even as it beats its own women in the streets.

The EU buys Iranian oil through indirect channels, often via Turkey or Asian intermediaries. Sanctions are porous. European politicians condemn Israel but hold dialogue with Iran.

The Biden administration in 2023 released $6 billion in frozen assets for a prisoner swap, even as Iran supplied drones to Russia for the Ukraine war. The White House claimed funds were “restricted for humanitarian use.” Money is fungible. Tehran knew it.

Legacy media frames Iran as misunderstood. Headlines speak of “hardliners vs moderates” as if the system allowed genuine reform. They write of “cultural nuance” while ignoring girls shot for refusing hijab.

The hypocrisy is structural. Israel is demonised. Iran is indulged.

5. Blueprint Forward

Economic

Reimpose maximum pressure: full secondary sanctions, targeting Chinese buyers of Iranian oil.
Sanction IRGC companies controlling construction, energy, telecom.
Freeze regime assets abroad. Seize front companies in Europe and the Gulf.

Political

Expel Iran from UN women’s commissions.
Downgrade diplomatic ties. Shut down embassies that function as terror hubs.
Publicly isolate Iran’s diplomats rather than indulge them in Vienna.

Military / Security

Interdict weapons shipments to Houthis and Hezbollah.
Provide Israel and Gulf states with missile defense funding.
Strike proxy assets if U.S. or allied troops are attacked.
Fund regional coalitions—Abraham Accord states, Saudi, Egypt—to form defense perimeter.

Social

Support Iranian dissidents with secure communications, satellite internet, diaspora funding.
Amplify voices of Iranian women globally.
Grant asylum priority to political dissidents, not regime functionaries.

Narrative

Stop legitimising Iranian “moderates.” There are none.
Expose regime corruption—clerics’ wealth, IRGC profits.
Highlight victims: women flogged, protesters shot, minorities executed.

6. The Merlow View

Iran will not reform. Like the Soviet Union, it will collapse. Pressure and dissent are the twin forces. The West should accelerate both.

Engagement is illusion. Dialogue with clerics is performance. The real Iran is its people—the women burning headscarves, the students chanting “Death to the Dictator,” the workers striking. They are the alternative.

Islamism is not governance. It is death. Iran proves it daily: a rich nation made poor, a proud people made desperate, a culture of poetry and science reduced to militias and nuclear brinkmanship.

Prepare for the morning after: when the clerics fall, the West must be ready to rebuild ties with a free Iran, integrate it into regional peace, and ensure Islamism dies with the regime.

7. Call to Awareness

Iran is not misunderstood. It is malevolent. Its people are hostages. Its proxies are regional cancers. Its clerics are not reformers but jailers.

This is not a call for invasion. It is a call for clarity. Stop flattering Tehran. Stop funding its war machine. Support Iranian freedom, not Iranian tyranny.

If peace in the Middle East is possible, it runs through Tehran—not by indulging the regime but by ending it.

Data Annex: Iran

Chart 1. Iran’s Inflation & Rial Collapse (2010–2025)

(High inflation >40%, rial falling from 10,000 per USD in 2010 to >500,000 in 2025 black market.)

Chart 2. Iran’s Oil Exports (2015–2025)

– Pre-JCPOA 2015: ~1.4m barrels/day.
– Post-deal 2016–17: >2.5m bpd.
– 2020 under max pressure: <0.5m bpd.
– 2024–25: ~1.5m bpd, mostly to China.

Chart 3. Nuclear Enrichment Timeline

– 2015 JCPOA: capped at 3.67%.
– 2019: 4.5%.
– 2021: 20%.
– 2022: 60%.
– 2025: stockpile sufficient for 1–2 bombs, breakout in weeks.

Chart 4. Proxy Map

– Hezbollah: 150k rockets.
– Hamas/PIJ: $100m+ annually.
– Houthis: drones, missiles, Red Sea attacks.
– Iraq/Syria: militias controlling territory.

Chart 5. Executions & Repression

– 2015: ~970 executions.
– 2019: ~250.
– 2022: ~580.
– 2023: ~800+.

MERLOWS on Iran

The Islamic Republic of Iran: Tyranny, Proxy Wars, and the Failure of the West

1. Executive Summary