Abraham Accords: Assessing Resilience and Future Prospects in a Shifting Regional Landscape
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represented a watershed moment in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Agreements were initially reached between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan (though implementation stalled), and Morocco, formalising diplomatic relations and spurring cooperation across various sectors. The Accords signalled a potential paradigm shift, moving beyond decades of Arab boycott of Israel and establishing a new, albeit limited, framework for regional engagement. While hailed as a triumph of diplomacy by some, critics simultaneously cautioned against sidelining the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and warned of escalating tensions with Iran. Today, over a year since the escalation of conflict in Gaza in October 2023, and with further normalisation efforts underway, the Accords face a complex and evolving landscape, tested by regional instability and geopolitical rivalries. This report examines recent progress, persistent challenges, and the role of the Iran-Israel dynamic in shaping the Accords’ future.
Progress Made
Despite the significant disruption caused by the war in Gaza, the normalization process hasn’t completely stalled, and showed surprising resilience. Trade between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain has continued, though with some initial dips in the immediate aftermath of October 7th. Trade volume between Israel and the UAE, for instance, exceeded $2.7 billion in the first nine months of 2024, demonstrating continued economic cooperation. Tourism also remains a key pillar. Numbers have rebounded strongly, particularly from the UAE and Morocco, consistently exceeding pre-October 7th levels as stability gradually returns.
Beyond trade and tourism, security cooperation has deepened, particularly in areas of defence against drone threats and maritime security. Joint military exercises have remained a feature, signaling a continued mutual interest in countering shared challenges. Particularly significant is the strengthening of strategic alignment aimed at countering Iranian influence.
Further normalisation efforts have also yielded some results. While a fully-fledged agreement remains elusive, Saudi Arabia’s participation in infrastructure projects linked to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which envisions integrating Israel into regional trade routes, suggests a willingness to engage indirectly, even without formal diplomatic recognition. Discussions surrounding a potential Saudi-Israel normalisation deal, facilitated primarily by the United States, were actively underway before the outbreak of the current conflict, and – though on hold – are expected to be revisited. Morocco continues to deepen its relationship with Israel, with increasing military and intelligence collaboration.
Challenges
However, the path towards broader normalisation isn’t without significant obstacles. The war in Gaza fundamentally strained relations, with public opinion across the Arab world turning increasingly critical of the Accords’ signatories. Demonstrations and calls for boycotts were widespread, putting political pressure on governments to reassess their ties with Israel. While no country has formally rescinded its agreement, the war prompted a period of diplomatic recalibration and a more cautious approach to public displays of cooperation.
The unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a fundamental impediment. Many Arab states maintain that a lasting peace with Israel is contingent on a just solution for the Palestinian people, and the current trajectory of the conflict fuels disillusionment and skepticism. The breakdown of trust and the increasing violence in the West Bank further complicate matters. The continued expansion of Israeli settlements also undermines efforts to build confidence.
Internal political considerations within the Accords countries pose further challenges. Governments must balance the economic and security benefits of normalisation with domestic public sentiment and the need to maintain regional credibility. In some instances, political opposition forces are actively challenging the agreements. The economic impacts of regional instability and global economic headwinds are also creating pressures that could slow down the pace of normalisation. Supply chain disruptions and fluctuating energy prices impact the economic viability of some cooperative ventures.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are perhaps the most significant external factor impacting the Abraham Accords. The Accords indirectly represent a coalescing of regional forces seeking to contain Iranian influence. The UAE, Bahrain, and to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia, share concerns about Iran’s ballistic missile program, support for proxy groups, and regional ambitions. Strengthened security cooperation with Israel, therefore, aligns with their national security interests.
However, the direct confrontation between Israel and Iran – exemplified by the recent exchange of attacks – creates a precarious situation. It fuels instability, increases the risk of a wider conflict, and exacerbates existing tensions. Any large-scale conflict between Israel and Iran could potentially fracture the nascent normalisation framework. Countries hesitant to be perceived as aligning too closely with Israel might temporarily distance themselves. Moreover, a heightened security threat environment could divert resources away from economic and diplomatic initiatives towards defence spending and security measures. The US role in managing this dimension remains crucial, but consistently challenged by differing priorities and political pressures.
Path Forward
Despite the challenges, the Abraham Accords are unlikely to fully unravel. The underlying strategic interests that prompted their formation remain relevant. However, the pace of expansion is likely to be slower and more cautious. Resuming the dialogue with Saudi Arabia, when conditions allow, represents the most significant potential breakthrough. This will likely necessitate a renewed commitment from all parties to address the Palestinian issue, even if a comprehensive resolution remains elusive.
Moving forward, a more nuanced approach is needed, one that acknowledges the complexities of the regional landscape and prioritizes incremental steps. Building trust through focusing on practical cooperation in areas like climate change, water security, and public health could create a more positive environment for broader political engagement. Strengthening civil society exchanges and promoting people-to-people diplomacy will also be crucial for fostering understanding and building long-term relationships. Ultimately, the success of the Accords will hinge on the ability of all stakeholders to manage the existing tensions, navigate geopolitical rivalries, and adapt to the ever-changing dynamics of the Middle East.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, drawing from regional news sources, think tank reports, and diplomatic briefings in the period following October 7th, 2023, as well as broader research regarding the Abraham Accords established prior to that date, and developed in response to the prompt’s subject, “One year on: the Abraham Accords after war, expansion and strain”. Specific sources were not provided in the prompt material.