Abraham Accords: A landscape of opportunity and risk, tested by ongoing regional conflict.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represent a significant shift in Middle Eastern diplomatic relations. They saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, followed by Sudan and Morocco, opening avenues for cooperation in trade, tourism, security, and cultural exchange. The accords were underpinned by shared concerns over Iranian regional influence and a desire for economic opportunity. While hailed as historic breakthroughs, the Accords didn’t resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and their long-term sustainability remains intrinsically linked to the broader regional security context. Currently, four nations have fully normalised ties with Israel following the Accords, though the level of engagement and practical implementation varies considerably. The recent escalation of conflict in Gaza and escalating tensions between Israel and Iran pose a direct threat to the momentum generated by these agreements.
Progress Made
Despite the overshadowing crisis in Gaza, a significant, though often understated, level of cooperation stemming from the Abraham Accords has continued. Bilateral trade between Israel and the UAE has surpassed $2.7 billion, exceeding initial expectations. The UAE also actively participated in Israel’s ‘Desert Shield’ civil defence exercise in early 2024, showcasing growing security collaboration. Bahrain and Morocco have also maintained diplomatic relations, with consistent, if lower-profile, economic and security engagements.
Beyond governmental ties, people-to-people exchanges have steadily increased. Tourism between Israel and the UAE, particularly Dubai, boomed post-normalisation, although it has naturally slowed since October 7th. Direct flights between the nations remain operational, albeit operating at reduced capacity.
A key area of progress has been in technological cooperation. Joint ventures in renewable energy, water management, and cybersecurity are underway. This is particularly significant for the UAE and Bahrain, who seek to diversify their economies and enhance their capabilities. The recent agreement for Israel to participate in the upcoming COP28 climate summit, hosted by the UAE, underscored the potential for collaboration on shared environmental challenges. While some investment projects have been paused or scaled back due to regional instability, the foundational structures are likely to remain in place. Furthermore, the US has continued to quietly encourage further normalisation efforts, believing it to be a key component of regional stability, and subtly integrating it into broader diplomatic initiatives.
Challenges
The war in Gaza casts a long shadow over the Abraham Accords, exposing their vulnerabilities. The widespread Arab public condemnation of Israel’s military actions has put significant pressure on the governments of the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco to distance themselves, or at least appear to do so. While these nations have officially maintained their diplomatic ties with Israel, they’ve also strongly criticised Israeli policies and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, creating a delicate balancing act.
Public anger has manifested in protests across the region, demanding a re-evaluation of normalisation agreements. Leaders in these states are having to carefully manage domestic political pressures while also pursuing their own national interests, which often involve maintaining a working relationship with Israel.
The conflict has also stalled many ongoing projects and deterred new investments. Security concerns have increased, impacting travel and business ties. The broader regional environment is increasingly volatile, with heightened risks of escalation involving non-state actors. There is concern that the current crisis is solidifying existing divisions within the Arab world, potentially hindering future normalisation efforts with other states.
Perhaps the biggest challenge is the lack of sustained progress on the Palestinian issue. The Accords were criticised from the start for proceeding without addressing the core grievances of the Palestinian people. The current crisis underscores this point, demonstrating that lasting peace and stability in the region cannot be achieved without a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran directly impact the Abraham Accords. Iran views the normalisation agreements as a strategic encirclement, orchestrated by the US and Israel to isolate it regionally. The existing agreements emboldened hardliners in Tehran, who have increased support for proxy groups hostile to Israel, notably Hamas and Hezbollah.
The recent exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran, following the Iranian drone and missile barrage, represents a dangerous escalation. A wider conflict would undoubtedly jeopardise the Accords. Saudi Arabia, a key potential future partner in normalisation, is walking a tightrope. It has publicly condemned the Iranian attacks and signalled its continued desire for de-escalation, but its relationship with Iran is improving, and it remains committed to Palestinian statehood.
The underlying dynamic is one of competing regional power structures. The Accords represented an attempt to build a new alignment focused on countering Iranian influence. Iran, in turn, is actively working to disrupt this alignment and undermine the normalisation process. The current pause in fighting, brokered by the US and regional actors, is a temporary reprieve. Without a wider de-escalation, the nascent relationships built through the Accords remain highly vulnerable to disruption.
Path Forward
The immediate priority is to solidify the ceasefire in Gaza and prevent further escalation between Israel and Iran. A key component of any sustainable stability will be addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and creating a credible pathway toward a two-state solution. While the Accords are not directly tied to Palestinian negotiations, the current crisis demonstrates that their long-term viability depends on addressing the underlying Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Continued US diplomatic engagement is crucial. Washington must work to manage tensions between Israel and Iran, while also incentivising further normalisation efforts. A renewed focus on regional security architecture, involving all key stakeholders, is essential.
Realistically, further immediate normalisation breakthroughs are unlikely. The focus will be on preserving the existing agreements and preventing them from unraveling. The potential for future normalisation with Saudi Arabia remains, but it is contingent on significant progress on the Palestinian front and a broader easing of regional tensions. The Abraham Accords represent a valuable, though fragile, achievement. Their survival depends on a commitment to dialogue, de-escalation, and a renewed focus on addressing the root causes of conflict in the region.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, diplomatic sources familiar with the region and reporting on trends in Middle East normalisation between Israel and Arab states, and secondary source analysis of the current Gaza conflict and Israel-Iran tensions as of May 15th, 2024. Specfic sources were not on-hand for this generation.