Abraham Accords: A shifting landscape of regional diplomacy aiming for normalisation between Israel and Arab states.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represent a significant recalibration of Middle Eastern relations. The initial agreements – between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco – normalised diplomatic ties, opening avenues for cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, and security. While Sudan’s full implementation has faced setbacks due to internal political turmoil, the accords with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have yielded tangible results. The envisioned wider scope – encompassing a broader circle of Arab nations – remains a key ambition. Today, the framework is being actively explored by Saudi Arabia, and smaller Gulf states are signalling a commitment to closer ties with Israel, demonstrating a significant, though cautious, evolution of the regional geopolitical landscape. The recent developments from Sharm el-Sheikh indicate a continuing, albeit nuanced, expansion of this integration.
Progress Made
Recent gatherings in Sharm el-Sheikh have seen Gulf states formally align themselves with principles outlined in the original ‘Trump Declaration’ fostering the Abraham Accords. This doesn’t signify the immediate announcement of full normalisation with Israel for all involved, but a publicly stated commitment to the underlying pillars: mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and a focus on regional stability. Kuwait, Oman and Qatar have all dispatched high-level representatives to meetings co-hosted by the US and Egypt, signalling a shift from quiet engagement to more open support for the accords’ objectives.
Beyond symbolic alignment, exploratory talks surrounding joint economic projects are gaining momentum. Several UAE-Israeli business ventures, initially announced post-normalisation, are now becoming operational, focusing on renewable energy, water technology, and agricultural innovation. Bahrain is actively pursuing similar partnerships, particularly in the fintech sector. Morocco’s economic ties with Israel, despite some political headwinds domestically, are expanding, with increased trade and anticipated collaborative tourism initiatives.
Critically, security cooperation, while largely kept under the radar, is deepening. Shared concerns over Iran’s regional activities have spurred intelligence sharing and coordinated military exercises between Israel and some Gulf states. This is not a formalised alliance, but a pragmatic response to perceived threats. The United States continues to play a facilitating role, providing security guarantees and acting as a mediator. The Sharm el-Sheikh meetings explicitly addressed the need for collaborative efforts to counter terrorism and address proliferating weapon technologies within the region. Discussions also revolved around integrated air defence strategies, although concrete plans remain preliminary.
Challenges
Despite the visible progress, significant hurdles remain to wider normalisation and sustained cooperation. Deep-seated public opinion in many Arab countries remains largely unfavourable towards Israel, particularly regarding the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Political leaders are acutely aware of this sentiment, limiting the scope of overt engagement.
The issue of Palestinian statehood is central. Whilst the Accords circumvented a prerequisite for resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict, the lack of meaningful progress on this front continues to fuel resentment and complicates efforts to bring more countries on board. Many Arab states insist that further normalisation is contingent on demonstrable efforts towards a two-state solution. The current Israeli government’s policies in the West Bank, including settlement expansion, are frequently cited as obstacles.
Internal political dynamics within the Gulf states themselves also present challenges. Changes in leadership, shifting priorities, and domestic economic pressures can impact the momentum of normalisation efforts. For example, Oman, whilst showing increased willingness to engage, faces scrutiny from within regarding the perceived pace of rapprochement with Israel. Similarly, Qatar’s position remains carefully calibrated, balancing its regional ambitions with its historic support for Palestinian causes.
Furthermore, the question of trust remains. Legacy issues and historical grievances impede the development of genuine, long-term partnerships. Concerns about intelligence sharing and potential exploitation of security cooperation continue to surface.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The growing alignment between Gulf states and Israel is inextricably linked to shared anxieties regarding Iran’s regional influence. The perception of a waning US commitment to regional security, coupled with Iran’s burgeoning nuclear programme and support for proxy groups, has driven Gulf states closer to Israel. The Sharm el-Sheikh discussions saw a pronounced focus on enhancing regional security architecture to counter perceived Iranian threats.
Israel views the Gulf states as crucial partners in its strategic calculations concerning Iran. Enhanced security cooperation doesn’t aim to contain Iran unilaterally, but to create a deterrent effect and maintain a balance of power in a highly volatile region. The understanding is that a unified front – encompassing Israel and moderate Arab powers – can effectively discourage Iran from aggressive actions.
The Abraham Accords, therefore, are being framed, and strategically leveraged, as a counterweight to Iran. This dynamic adds a layer of complexity, as it risks escalating tensions and potentially sparking a proxy conflict. Iran consistently condemns the Accords as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and a threat to regional security. The increased alignment, while welcomed by Israel and its Arab partners, is undoubtedly perceived in Tehran as a further encirclement and provocation. This perception fuels Iranian narratives and justifies continued investment in regional proxies.
Path Forward
The path towards broader regional normalisation is likely to be incremental and uneven. We are unlikely to see a sudden rush of Arab states establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel, especially while the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains unresolved. The Sharm el-Sheikh developments indicate a gradual shift towards a more pragmatic approach, focusing on practical cooperation where mutual interests align.
The key lies in continuing to build on existing economic partnerships and security collaborations. Investing in tangible benefits for citizens – through trade, tourism, and joint projects – will be crucial for fostering positive public perceptions. The US role as a facilitator will remain essential, although a shift in administrations can introduce new uncertainties.
Importantly, addressing the Palestinian question, even through incremental steps, is vital. Renewed dialogue between Israeli and Palestinian leaders, perhaps facilitated by regional actors, could pave the way for a more stable and inclusive future. However, the current political climate makes such dialogue exceptionally challenging.
Realistically, the next phase will involve a deepening of existing ties alongside cautious, exploratory discussions with nations currently hesitant to fully embrace normalisation. The focus will be on demonstrating the tangible benefits of cooperation while navigating the complex political landscape and managing the inherent risks associated with maintaining regional stability in the face of Iranian influence.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information and observations regarding regional diplomatic efforts, drawing on reporting from diplomatic sources familiar with the Sharm el-Sheikh meetings and the evolving dynamics surrounding the Abraham Accords. Specific information regarding the closed-door discussions referenced could not be directly attributed to named sources.