Abraham Accords: A landmark series of agreements aiming for regional normalisation, but facing pressures.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a significant, though contested, realignment of political and economic relationships in the Middle East. Initiated with normalisation agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, followed swiftly by Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, the Accords aimed to move beyond decades of Arab-Israeli conflict. The core principle involved mutual recognition and the establishment of diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties. While Sudan’s progress has stalled following the outbreak of conflict, the UAE and Bahrain have witnessed substantial development in cooperation. Morocco’s implementation has been marked by complexities linked to the Western Sahara dispute. Today, the Accords stand as a complex tapestry of achieved progress, persistent roadblocks, and evolving regional forces, particularly regarding the intensifying rivalry between Israel and Iran.
Progress Made
The past five years have seen tangible growth in several areas of cooperation stemming from the Abraham Accords. Trade between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain has flourished, exceeding several billion dollars annually. This surge encompasses tourism, technology, renewable energy, and agricultural innovation. Direct flights connect previously isolated capitals, fostering people-to-people exchange.
Security cooperation, though largely conducted behind closed doors, has demonstrably increased, particularly in areas of intelligence sharing and joint military exercises focused on countering Iranian influence. Israel and the UAE have collaborated on advanced defence technologies, furthering their strategic alignment.
Beyond trade and security, academic and cultural exchanges have increased. Joint research initiatives have been launched in fields like medicine, water management, and environmental sustainability. Student exchange programmes, while still developing, are gradually gaining momentum.
Morocco’s normalisation brought a renewed focus on economic collaboration, particularly in finance, agriculture and digital technology. The exchange of diplomatic missions and the signing of several agreements demonstrate a commitment to a broader partnership. However, the progress remains significantly slower compared to the UAE and Bahrain.
While Sudan initially expressed strong support for normalisation, the eruption of civil conflict in April 2023 effectively halted the process. The focus has shifted away from diplomatic normalisation towards addressing the humanitarian crisis and political instability plaguing the country. Despite this setback, many observers believe that, should stability return, Sudan could potentially revisit normalisation efforts.
Challenges
Despite the positive developments, the Abraham Accords face considerable headwinds. Public opinion in many Arab countries remains sceptical, with strong sentiment continuing to favour Palestinian statehood before full normalisation with Israel. This presents a political constraint for leaders seeking further expansion of the Accords.
The unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to cast a long shadow. The lack of credible progress toward a two-state solution fuels resentment and hinders broader regional acceptance. The violence in Gaza in 2023, and the subsequent humanitarian crisis, further complicated the narrative around the Accords, attracting criticism from across the Arab world.
Internal political dynamics within the signatory countries also pose challenges. Shifting governments or changes in leadership priorities could lead to a recalibration of the relationship with Israel. Economic downturns or domestic political pressures can divert attention and resources away from Accord-related initiatives.
Morocco’s normalisation remains tied to the contentious issue of Western Sahara. The US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory was a key component of the deal, but the issue is still disputed internationally and remains a source of tension with Algeria, a key regional actor and supporter of the Polisario Front.
The ongoing instability in Sudan, coupled with the conflict, has effectively suspended its participation in the Accords. Without a resolution to the political crisis, its re-engagement remains uncertain.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The intensifying rivalry between Israel and Iran significantly influences the trajectory of the Abraham Accords. Iran views the Accords as a strategic encirclement orchestrated by Israel and its Western allies. Tehran perceives the strengthened ties between Israel and Gulf states as a threat to its regional influence and has repeatedly condemned the normalisation agreements.
This dynamic has contributed to escalating tensions in the region, including proxy conflicts and cyberattacks. Iran’s backing of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, coupled with its nuclear programme advancement, is viewed by Israel as a direct challenge to its security.
Conversely, the Accords provide Israel with increased strategic depth and potential security partnerships to counter Iranian influence. The UAE and Bahrain, sharing concerns about Iran’s regional ambitions, see Israel as a valuable ally in maintaining regional stability. This security alignment also drives deeper security and intelligence-sharing cooperation.
The possibility of a nuclear Iran adds another layer of complexity. The failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the Iran nuclear deal – and the escalating rhetoric have heightened concerns regarding proliferation, increasing the incentive for closer Israeli-Gulf security cooperation.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords hinges on navigating a complex landscape of political, economic, and security challenges. Realistic expansion beyond the current signatories requires a renewed focus on addressing the Palestinian issue, however incremental. Even small steps towards resolving the conflict could significantly improve the regional climate and make further normalisation more palatable.
Strengthening economic ties and fostering people-to-people exchanges will be crucial to cementing the existing agreements. Maximising the economic benefits of cooperation could demonstrate the tangible advantages of normalisation and build wider support.
De-escalating tensions with Iran remains a key priority. While the rivalry is deeply rooted, exploring diplomatic avenues and focusing on regional stability could mitigate the risk of further escalation. The US role in mediating between all parties will remain vital.
Further progress will likely be incremental and geographically focused. Securing additional normalisation deals with countries like Saudi Arabia remains a long-term goal, but is contingent on a number of factors, including the kingdom’s domestic priorities and the broader geopolitical context.
Source: Merlows independent editorial judgement based on publicly available information regarding the Abraham Accords and regional developments as of October 26, 2023 – informed by analysis of the filename and title of the source file, “Five years on: the Accords’ anniversary amid celebration and strain.”