Conference Season: The Weak, the Whining and the Rising Force

In a Nutshell

• The 2025 UK party conference season laid bare the power shifts in British politics.
• Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative conference lacked vigor, unity, or conviction, and internal fissures surfaced early.¹
• Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour concentrated on attacking Nigel Farage rather than defining Labour’s own vision, inviting internal tension.¹⁰¹⁴
• The Green Party’s gathering was low impact despite hard line rhetoric on Israel and Gaza.⁷¹¹¹⁶
• Farage’s Reform UK seized the moment. Defections, sharper messaging, and polling momentum positioned Reform as the insurgent to watch.³⁸¹⁷

The Main Course

The Facts and the Frame

Kemi Badenoch’s Manchester gathering was meant to be a relaunch. Instead it looked under attended and under energized. Reporting from inside the hall described thin crowds, muted enthusiasm, and a party nervous about its own relevance. Polling cited around the conference underscored the gloom, with some surveys showing Conservatives struggling to hold even second place behind Reform UK.¹⁸

Labour’s event in Liverpool was polished and disciplined, yet often framed around Nigel Farage as the existential threat. News copy and clips of the speech highlighted repeated swipes at Farage, positioning Labour as the custodian of decency against alleged grievance politics. Effective, perhaps, but it risks turning the opposition into the central character of Labour’s own story.¹⁰¹⁴

The Greens convened in Bournemouth, pressed harder on Gaza and Israel, and generated headlines for rhetoric rather than reach. Attendance and national cut through remained limited compared to the big three. The party’s stance on Israel and Gaza drew attention, but little evidence of wider electoral traction across the week.⁷¹¹¹⁶

Reform UK, by contrast, treated the season as campaign time. Farage’s set pieces were designed to project readiness, recruit defectors, and signal a shift from protest to project. Multiple outlets tracked polling movement placing Reform ahead of the Conservatives, and in some models competitive with Labour in vote share scenarios.³⁸¹⁷

Kemi and the Tories: A Hollow Rally for a Fracturing Party

Badenoch arrived promising to redefine a party battered by defeat. The set piece lines aimed for steel on law and order, a sharper posture on borders, and a reset on economics. Yet the conference narrative was overwhelmed by two realities. First, the room looked light. Second, the party sounded split. Senior figures and activists voiced unease about direction and leadership durability. The post conference chatter was as much about alternatives as it was about agenda.¹

Official channels published the opening speech in full and tried to set a forward looking tone, but the struggle to command agenda was obvious. In modern politics, conferences must feel like the future. This one felt like triage.¹³

Starmer and Labour: Fixated on the Enemy, Neglectful of Self

Starmer’s team stage managed a clean show. The speeches were disciplined, the choreography tight. Yet the emphasis on Nigel Farage was unmistakable. Starmer accused Farage of crossing moral lines and framed Labour as the guardian of inclusive patriotism. That may resonate with core supporters, but it risks elevating Farage by constant reference and leaves less room to articulate a distinctive Labour vision that does not depend on contrast alone.¹⁰

Coverage noted how long it took Starmer to place the Conservatives in his critique, suggesting a strategic decision to cast Labour as governing against Farage rather than competing head to head with the Tories. A confident government defines itself first, then defines its opponents. The order appeared reversed.¹⁴

The Greens: A Marginal Footnote

The Green Party’s conference produced headlines for hard position taking on Israel and Gaza, including calls and motions that critics described as extreme. The leadership also used the moment to attack Labour from the left. Whatever the internal dynamics, the national effect was small. The party still struggles to translate passionate halls into national scale.⁷¹¹¹⁶

Farage: Conference as Campaign, Momentum as Message

The Reform UK leader used the season to look like a prime minister in waiting. The speeches were not only culture war riffs. They were also about building a governing story, recruiting recognisable names, and persuading disaffected Labour and Conservative voters that Reform is a home rather than a howl. Reporting and polling suggested the strategy landed. The phrase preparing for government turned up more than once in mainstream coverage.³

Alongside the headlines, Reform’s polling movement mattered most. Multiple outlets carried surveys placing Reform ahead of the Conservatives, sometimes by clear margins. Others modeled seat outcomes that would make Reform competitive for the largest party if current trends held. The season did not look like a stunt. It looked like a pivot from insurgency to institution in real time.⁸¹⁷

Numbers and Proof

• Tory mood and attendance: Reports from Manchester highlighted thin crowds, low energy, and a leadership debate humming just under the surface.¹
• Official messaging: Conservative Party channels published Badenoch’s full remarks to set a forward looking tone, confirming key themes and priorities.¹³
• Labour focus: Starmer’s address repeatedly targeted Nigel Farage, framing Labour as an antidote to grievance politics.¹⁰¹⁴
• Green positioning: Conference week pieces and motions amplified criticism of Israel and Gaza policy while calling for measures that drew national scrutiny.⁷¹¹¹⁶
• Reform momentum: Reuters, the Independent, and Sky News covered Reform’s polling surge and Farage’s positioning as preparing for government.³⁸¹⁷

The Media Recommends

For context, not endorsement:

• The Guardian on Badenoch’s conference and the listening problem inside the hall.¹
• Financial Times on the Conservatives’ road back to credibility.^3a
• AP on Starmer’s framing of Farage and moral lines.¹⁰
• Sky News on Reform’s modeled seat outcomes.¹⁷
• The Independent on Reform leading national vote share in polling snapshots.⁸

The Merlow View

History in Motion

Realignment rarely arrives with trumpets. It arrives with the quiet collapse of confidence. The Conservatives once housed center right Britain. Now they sound like a memory of themselves. Labour governs, yet too often orients around an antagonist rather than an ambition. The Greens talk loudly to the already convinced. The energy flows to the open space. That is where Reform is standing.

Conference season did not create these trajectories. It revealed them. When halls are thin and applause is polite, when the governing party spends its time defining an opponent, when a minor party makes more noise about geopolitics than about Britain, there is vacuum. Politics abhors vacuum. Someone will fill it.

Fantasy vs Reality

Fantasy: The Conservatives only need time. Reality: they need identity. Without a clear theory of governance and a single story that unites their wings, time will not heal. It will harden drift.¹

Fantasy: Labour is the steady hand and Farage is a passing fad. Reality: the more Labour centers Farage in its rhetoric, the more it validates him as an equal. Define Britain first, then define the opponent.¹⁰¹⁴

Fantasy: The Greens are breaking through. Reality: they generated headlines, not heft, and they still lack a route to national majority politics.⁷¹¹

Fantasy: Reform is a protest vehicle. Reality: it is professionalising, recruiting, and testing a narrative of competence that forces both main parties to respond.³¹⁷

A Blueprint Forward

• For the Conservatives: stop triangulating between wings and choose a governing identity. Resolve the leadership question in the open, rebuild a national bench, and reconnect with local associations.
• For Labour: re center your own program. Explain economic reform, border competence, and public service renewal in concrete steps. Critique opponents without letting them structure your narrative.
• For the Greens: trade performative foreign policy motions for a practical domestic offer that can scale. Moralism without resonance is not strategy.
• For Reform UK: consolidate gains where it counts. Candidate depth, local governance delivery, and policy detail will determine whether momentum becomes mandate.
• For the public: prize seriousness over spectacle. Look for the parties that build institutions, not only headlines.

Sources

1. The Guardian. Badenoch sets out her vision to redefine Tory party, but few are listening. 8 Oct 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/08/badenoch-sets-out-her-vision-to-redefine-tory-party-but-few-are-listening
2. Associated Press. Britain’s once mighty Conservative Party is battling to avoid extinction. 2025. https://apnews.com/article/c96381f22b6f41e90ef5109d6c28d1b7
3. Reuters. Reform’s Farage vows to start preparing for government to make UK great again. 5 Sep 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/reforms-farage-vows-start-preparing-government-make-uk-great-again-2025-09-05
4. Financial Times. The Conservatives’ long road back to credibility. 2025. https://www.ft.com/content/e6635f3c-42d7-428c-a021-ef7cb634ecaf
5. The Guardian. Nigel Farage says UK teachers are poisoning our kids and predicts strikes as PM. 9 Oct 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/09/nigel-farage-says-uk-teachers-are-poisoning-our-kids-and-predicts-strikes-as-pm
6. Bloomberg. UK Green leader slams Labour over Gaza protests and migration. 3 Oct 2025. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-03/uk-green-leader-slams-labour-over-gaza-protests-and-migration
7. The Independent. Reform UK would win if general election held tomorrow, poll suggests. 2025. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-uk-general-election-nigel-farage-ipsos-poll-b2774610.html
8. Associated Press. Starmer argues for inclusive patriotism and accuses Farage of trying to divide Britain. 2025. https://apnews.com/article/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-speech-farage-2788160fd8cc084c7f032c46a5a31776
9. Left Foot Forward. Green Party conference calls for the Israeli Defence Forces to be proscribed as a terrorist organisation. 2025. https://leftfootforward.org/2025/10/green-party-conference-calls-for-the-israeli-defence-forces-to-be-proscribed-as-a-terrorist-organisation
10. Conservatives.com. Kemi speaks at Conference Day 1. 5 Oct 2025. https://www.conservatives.com/news/kemi-speaks-at-conference-day-1
11. The London Economic. The most revealing part of Starmer’s conference speech was how long it took him to mention the Tories. 2025. https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/the-most-revealing-part-of-starmers-conference-speech-how-long-it-took-him-to-mention-the-tories-398583
12. Green Party Press Office. Greens recognise Israeli government conduct as apartheid and genocide. 9 Sep 2024. https://greenparty.org.uk/2024/09/09/greens-become-first-political-party-in-england-and-wales-to-recognise-israeli-government-conduct-as-apartheid-and-genocide
13. Sky News. Reform would win most seats in general election, in depth poll suggests. 26 Jun 2025. https://news.sky.com/story/reform-would-win-most-seats-in-general-election-in-depth-poll-suggests-13388577