Abraham Accords: Two years on, the agreements remain a pivotal, yet complex, shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the US in 2020, represent a series of historic normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the UAE and Bahrain, later Morocco and Sudan. These agreements moved beyond decades of animosity, establishing diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties. While Sudan’s transition remains fraught and formal ties haven’t fully materialised, the UAE and Bahrain have forged ahead, establishing embassies, launching direct flights, and initiating significant trade and tourism exchanges. Morocco’s relationship has deepened with security cooperation emerging as a key facet. The core driver for these nations was reframing their strategic interests – prioritising economic opportunities and a shared concern over Iranian regional influence over traditional solidarity with Palestine. However, the Accords haven’t resolved the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and remain a subject of controversy within the wider Arab world.
Progress Made: Expanding Ties and Economic Gains
flydubai’s resumption of direct flights to Tel Aviv, following a temporary suspension linked to regional escalations, is the latest tangible demonstration of the continuing, though uneven, progress of the Abraham Accords. The airline initially launched the route in late 2020, providing a vital link for both tourists and business travellers. Its re-establishment, coupled with recently reported clearances for civilian air traffic from Gulf states over their airspaces for flights to and from Israel, is significant. This marks a practical easing of previously observed restrictions imposed during periods of heightened tensions, suggesting a desire to maintain momentum towards normalisation.
Beyond aviation, trade between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain has flourished. Bilateral trade exceeded $2.5 billion in 2022, a figure expected to rise further. Investment flows have also increased, with Emirati and Bahraini firms exploring opportunities in Israeli technology, renewable energy, and defence sectors. Joint ventures and memorandums of understanding (MoUs) are commonplace, covering areas like agricultural technology, cybersecurity, and healthcare. Tourism has also experienced an uptick, with a growing number of visitors travelling between the countries. Morocco illustrates a different aspect of progress. Security cooperation, including intelligence sharing and arms sales, has become a central tenet of the relationship, alongside economic partnerships. Technology transfer is also accelerating, contributing towards modernising Moroccan defence capabilities.
Challenges: Palestinian Concerns and Regional Volatility
Despite the positive developments, the Abraham Accords face several persistent challenges. The most significant is the continued absence of substantive progress towards resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Accords proceeded without addressing core Palestinian grievances, leading to widespread criticism amongst Palestinians who feel betrayed by their Arab neighbours. This frustration fuels ongoing resentment and periodic outbreaks of violence, hindering broader regional stability.
Regional tensions, particularly recurring escalations between Israel and militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon, consistently threaten to derail the normalisation process. The suspension of flydubai flights during recent conflicts demonstrates the fragility of these links. Furthermore, political instability within some of the signatory countries, such as Sudan’s ongoing civil conflict, creates uncertainty and complicates the implementation of agreed-upon arrangements.
Internal political dynamics also play a role. Public opinion in countries like Morocco, while generally supportive of regional peace, remains sensitive to issues relating to the Palestinian cause. This creates a delicate balancing act for governments seeking to deepen ties with Israel while managing domestic concerns. Finally, the perceived top-down nature of the Accords – negotiated and initiated by governments – without substantial grassroots engagement, presents a longer-term challenge to their sustainability.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Central Motivator & Source of Risk
The evolving relationship between Israel and its Arab neighbours is inextricably linked to the broader regional rivalry with Iran. A key driver for the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco’s willingness to normalise relations with Israel was a shared perception of Iran’s destabilising activities and its nuclear programme. They see Israel as a potential security partner in countering Iranian influence.
The strengthening of ties between Israel and its Arab partners has, predictably, been met with strong condemnation from Iran, which views the Accords as a threat to its regional position and accuses the signatories of abandoning the Palestinian cause. Iran consistently portrays the agreements as a US-led attempt to encircle and isolate it.
However, this dynamic also adds a layer of risk. Any significant escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran – particularly in the realm of Iran’s nuclear programme – could quickly spill over and jeopardise the fragile gains made through the Abraham Accords. Hamas and Hezbollah, both backed by Iran, remain deeply opposed to Israel’s existence, and their actions, whether directly instigated by Iran or not, can undermine the normalisation process. Any significant attack launched from these proxies would inevitably place strain on the new relationships building across the region.
Path Forward: Incremental Progress and Building Resilience
Looking ahead, a dramatic expansion of the Accords to include Saudi Arabia appears increasingly unlikely in the short term, despite earlier optimism. The focus will likely shift towards consolidating the existing agreements and deepening economic and security cooperation between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. Establishing more robust, institutionalised mechanisms for dialogue and crisis management will be crucial for weathering future regional storms.
Incremental progress – building on existing ties and addressing practical challenges – appears the most realistic path. Expanding people-to-people exchanges, promoting joint economic initiatives, and fostering collaboration in areas like renewable energy and water security can help deepen trust and create vested interests in maintaining the normalisation process.
Addressing the Palestinian issue, even in a limited way, remains vital. While a comprehensive peace agreement is distant, initiatives aimed at improving the economic situation in the Palestinian territories and de-escalating tensions could contribute to a more stable regional environment. Ultimately, the sustainability of the Accords depends on demonstrating that normalisation can yield tangible benefits not only for the signatories but also for the wider region, including the Palestinian people.
Source: Reporting based on analysis of the announced resumption of flydubai flights to Tel Aviv and broader observation of trends in Middle Eastern relations. Publicly available information from government statements, trade data, and industry reports was synthesised to produce this piece.